by | Nov 5, 2012
The Candidates
Merlin Bartz (R)Â vs. Mary Jo Wilhelm (D)
Two sitting senators square off here. Sen. Merlin Bartz is in his second stint in the Iowa Legislature. He served one term in the Iowa House, moved up to the Iowa Senate, resigned after 8 years to join the Department of Agriculture, and finally got elected back to the senate in 2008.
Sen. Mary Jo Wilhelm formerly served on the Howard County Board of Supervisors, started her own residential appraisal business, and was first elected to the Senate in 2008.
The District
Our final race takes us to Northern Iowa’s Senate District 26, where five whole counties (Worth, Chickasaw, Floyd, Mitchell, and Howard), as well as parts of Winneshiek and Cerro Gordo, make up the territory. Not much of a built-in advantage for either candidate here as the November numbers for voter registrations are: (D-12,741) (R-12,094) (NP-17,808) (D+647).
The Race
This is without question one of the top 3 high profile legislative races in the state. Beyond being an incumbent vs. incumbent match-up, there is a lot of committee assignments and seniority on the line for each Party. Bartz serves on the Appropriations, Local Government, Rules and Administration, and Ways and Means committees. Meanwhile Wilhelm serves on the Commerce, Economic Growth, Education, Human Resources, and Local Government committees.
With the following factors in play: two incumbents, a swing district, and political control of the state likely in the balance, you would expect big money to follow—and sure enough that’s exactly what we have here. Bartz raised $150,000 on his own, while the GOP chipped in $35,000. This pales in comparison though to Sen. Wilhelm who raised $105,000 on her own but had the Democrat Senate Majority fund throw in a mind- boggling $224,000 on her behalf.
These totals make this legislative contest the one with the highest cumulative dollars spent in Iowa this year ($514,000), and the near quarter million dollar donation from the Democrat Party made Wilhelm the second biggest recipient of help from their Party of all the legislative candidates (trailing only the $237,000 Democrats gave Nate Willems in SD 48).
Disregarding for a moment the balance of power and looking at only these two candidates, I think both sides may even agree that Bartz would be a bigger loss to Republicans than Wilhelm would be to the Democrats. I do not know how specifically Wilhelm is involved on her side with policy and the moving parts of legislation, but I do know that Bartz has a world of both local and federal experience that Republicans often rely on. Put simply, besides replacing him on the four committees he serves on, it’s doubtful Republicans will be able to fully replace his intellectual assets anytime soon—that is without taking it from another area.
Two quick thoughts–one for each side
If Bartz and the Republicans lose this seat by a few hundred votes or less, which is very possible, they may look back and blame a public dispute that Bartz entered into with his neighbors in Grafton over $1,100 dollars worth of fencing. Click the link to read about this head-scratcher, but it’s safe to say this did not earn him any votes and it certainly cost him some. Especially for a guy out raising $150,000 to keep his seat, it sure seems like paying the $1,100 on his own would have been worth it.
It’s safe to say that if Wilhelm and the Democrats are unable to pull out this race…somebody in strategic leadership will be in hot water. The reason for this is that the spending strategy employed by Democrats has been to create a firewall by dumping huge money into a few races that they saw as unthinkable to lose, meanwhile the GOP has spread it’s money much more evenly. Consider this, in just three senate races (48, 36, and 26) the Democrat Party chose to invest $595,000. If on Tuesday they don’t win these races or they find themselves on the losing end of some other close races that they short-armed resources to, this strategy will shoulder a large portion of the blame.
Further Information
Merlin Bartz -Â MerlinBartz.com
Mary Jo Wilhelm -Â WilhelmForSenate.com
by | Nov 4, 2012
The Candidates
Jeff Danielson (D) vs. Matt Reisetter (R)
The incumbent Democrat Jeff Danielson is a veteran, a graduate of UNI, and a fire fighter in the community—so in short he is a perfect candidate on paper. Matt Reisetter (rhymes with “Easter”) ran and almost won a House seat in 2006. He is also a UNI graduate and for the last few years has worked for Bob Vander Plaats at The Family Leader, leaving the organization at the beginning of 2012 to start a consulting firm called SDG Solutions.
The District
Senate District 30 is an easy one to envision—basically think Cedar Falls and you pretty much have it. This is another district where map day left a sitting Democrat with a registered voter hole to dig out of. The most recent numbers here are: (R-13,452) (D-13,009) (NP-17,868) (R+443).
The Race
A re-count victory for Danielson a few years ago proved to Republicans that he was beatable. If they want to be ensured of Senate control next session the best way to do so would be to finish the job this year—this seat is absolutely critical to both political parties.
Both these men are top-tier Iowa Legislative candidates. Besides having the advantage of incumbency, like I mentioned earlier, Danielson has a near perfect resume on paper. Reisetter is a rising star in the Iowa GOP, particularly in the more religious wings of the Party. He has received some heat for his religious-based social views (enraging Liberals with this presentation to college students last month). With so much of this district being involved with University of Northern Iowa students, faculty, and administrators, keeping the focus off of social issues is the best political play and largely Reisetter has realized this.
Due to the importance of this race the money has been flowing on both sides. Danielson has hauled in an amazing $213,000, while receiving $28,000 in in-kind contributions. Reisetter has raised an incumbent-like $141,000 which he padded with $49,000 in in-kind contributions.
In summary, Republicans couldn’t really have asked for a better candidate to take on Danielson. Whether he is able to be successful or not may come down to how many UNI students are willing to head out and vote for President Obama. Any way you slice it though this race will be close—and the leadership of each party will be watching with bated breath.
Further Information
Jeff Danielson— JeffDanielson.org
Matt Reisetter— MattforIowa.com
by | Nov 4, 2012
The Candidates
Steve Sodders (D) vs. Jane Jech (R)
Steve Sodders is the incumbent senator here; he is a Deputy Sheriff in Marshall County and first was elected to the Iowa Senate in 2008. Jane Jech is currently a substitute teacher for the Marshalltown School District; she has 9 years of experience serving as a trustee for the Iowa Valley Community School Board.
The District
Senate District 36 is a couple of districts Northeast of Des Moines, and contains Marshall and Tama Counties and a bit of Black Hawk County. Though Democrats need this seat badly the district on paper actually favors Republicans. The voter registration numbers here are—(R-12,857) (D-12,736) (NP-16,488) (R+119). Significant here is that over the last months Democrats have gone from being down almost a thousand to just a little over 100, this is clearly not a positive sign for Jech.
The Race
Much of the news in this district came in the Republican Primary where Jech surprised many by defeating the establishment’s choice of Larry McKibben, who is a former Senator. This result was surprising for two reasons—first she has ran for the House twice before and lost and, second, not only did she defeat McKibben she crushed him by nearly 20 points. This unconventional path that Jech took for the right to face Sodders is witnessed by her website noting that she has the endorsements of Sen. Grassley, Ben Lange, and Jerry Behn.
As for the contest against Sodders, you may have already seen the commercials in this race as both candidates are up on TV in the Des Moines media market. Beyond being an incumbent, Sodders is also the Assistant Majority Leader in the Senate which would make this a great pick-up for Republicans.
Both Parties are spending big in this race, which proves that Democrats are taking Jech seriously even though she has lost two prior bids to join the Iowa House. Sodders has raised $92,000 on his own and has received $137,000 in in-kind contributions largely from the Democrat Senate Majority Fund. Jech had raised $62,000 and has had the GOP kick in $32,000.
Jech is clearly a Tea Party candidate, which as long as she is able to win is a great thing for Republicans. The flip side of this is that if she is not able to prevail she will join the list of candidates self-identified as Tea Party or Libertarian that cost the Republican Party influence over our state in the next two years. This list essentially includes Senate District 34, and quite possibly could include Jake Highfill in HD 39. If these races cost Republicans seats, expect the battle raging between the factions inside the Republican Party to escalate in the coming months.
I am currently not taking sides in this battle, and I operate on the George Will maxim of supporting “the most Conservative candidate that can winâ€. This cycle, the results for Jech in SD 36, Ryan Flood in SD 34, and Jake Highfill in HD 39 will go a long way in determining how conservative candidates in Iowa can be and still win. I am certainly pulling for all of them—but if they are unable to deliver I will advocate in the future for candidates with a better chance of actually obtaining the seats that will allow Republicans to implement reform in Iowa.
Further Information
Steve Sodders— Senate.Iowa.Gov/Sodders/
Jane Jech— JaneJech.com
by | Nov 2, 2012
Below is the full text of the “Letter to the Editor” I sent to several newspapers in Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District. I believe it makes the case against re-electing Leonard Boswell in a concise fashion. If there is anyone you know still on the fence in this race feel free to forward it to them.
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For the last ten years I have been represented in the U.S House by Rep. Leonard Boswell. During this time I have often disagreed with his positions, but never have I been more convinced that he has grown out of touch with the challenges facing my fellow Iowans, and our nation at large, than I am this year.
The number one piece of evidence proving this has been his approach to our country’s fiscal matters over the last few years. The reason I am so disappointed in Leonard Boswell is because I did something that has seemingly gone way out of style these days, something even nearly unthinkable actually—I looked up his voting record. More unbelievable perhaps is that I didn’t stop there; I had the nerve to continue doing my civic homework by looking up the record of his opponent Tom Latham as well.
Anyone choosing to do the same will find out that since 2009, the self-proclaimed fiscally conservative “Blue Dog†Democrat Leonard Boswell has cast yes votes on the following pieces of legislation:
• Economic Stimulus Bill—over $800 billion added to the national debt, more than a trillion dollars with interest included (passed the House 246-183 on Feb. 13, 2009).
• Obamacare—price tag of $900 billion over 10 years at passage, most recent CBO scoring nearly doubled this amount to $1.76 trillion (passed the House 219-212 on March 21, 2010).
• Raising the debt ceiling—passed the House 218-214 on December 16, 2009.
• Cap and Trade—according to the Obama administration itself, would have cost Americans up to $200 billion a year (passed the House 219-212 on June 26, 2009).
Meanwhile in the same span he voted against the following measures:
• Cut, Cap, and Balance—passed the House 234-190 on July 19th, 2011
• Debt ceiling bill – This is the John Boehner version that would have raised the debt ceiling in exchange for limits on discretionary spending (passed the House 218-210 on July 29, 2011).
• Reducing spending to F.Y 2008 levels—passed the House 256-165 on July 25, 2011.
Two things of note here are, 1) Tom Latham had the foresight and fiscal decency to vote against all the above bills that Leonard Boswell voted for, and 2) Though Mr. Boswell may have been a fiscally conservative Democrat at some point during his career in Washington—over the last three years he has shown zero concern for the massive debt that has crippled this economic recovery. In fact, he remarkably couldn’t even bring himself to support spending at the level we did just four years ago.
Besides being pleasantly surprised at how rock-solid Tom Latham has been on Federal spending, the thing I took away most from researching these two candidates is how disingenuous it is for Leonard Boswell to claim the mantle of “Blue Dog Democratâ€.
The reason this should matter to voters of all stripes on November 6th is it invites the following question:Â How can we expect our political leaders to do what they say they will once elected, if they are not even who they claim to be while running for office?
Especially since 2009, only one man in this race has had his eyes on the future fiscal health of this country, and by extension the next generation who will inherit this future—and that man is Tom Latham.
by | Nov 1, 2012
The Candidates
Dan Zumbach (R) vs. Nate Willems (D)
Democrat Nate Willems has spent the last 3 ½ years in the Iowa House and is an attorney who graduated from the U of I law School and now specializes in worker’s rights cases. Dan Zumbach is a farmer who has also served on the West Delaware School Board and is heavily involved in coaching youth sports and leading 4-H groups.
The District
Northeastern Iowa is home to Senate District 48, which consists of all of Delaware, most of Linn, and small portions of Jones and Buchanan Counties. Republicans hold a slight advantage in registered voters, the numbers shake out like this—(R-12,949) (D-12,355) (NP-18,082) (R+594).
The Race
Like in most political races this one will come down to two things—the candidates and the money they have to spend. In both areas there couldn’t be much more separation between the two camps.
Dealing first with the money, Willems raised an amazing $180,000 on his own. A fairly high number is to be expected from a 3+ year member of the Iowa House, but still this is a lot of money. On top of that the Democrat party tipped their hand that losing this race would be disastrous by throwing in an amazing $237,000. Zumbach did very well for a first time candidate by raising $90,000 on his own, while the GOP chipped in $23,000.
It is worth noting that the numbers for both are slightly inflated because both gave big chunks of the money they raised back to the Parties who then spent it for the candidates, largely on advertising. After these transactions are factored in the Democrats spent $97,000 of their own money on Willems, while Zumbach actually gave the GOP $2,000. The bottom line is that Willems has well beyond a 2:1 money advantage which has allowed him to encompass all media platforms and go very heavy on mailers.
The other thing that jumps out is how very different these two men are. Willems is the young up and coming Democrat/ lawyer while Zumbach is the community anchored, rugged farmer. Much of the result here will come down to which type of voter comes out in larger numbers on Tuesday. Though Willems has clearly proven he has support by being elected multiple times in this general area, both the House districts that make up this Senate District contain more Republicans than Democrats and this Senate District doesn’t resemble his old House District as much as one would expect. On paper it would seem the obvious advantage would go to the “incumbent”, who also happens to hold a huge money advantage.
The reason I’m not willing to say this race necessarily goes to the winner on paper is that Willems, though a current House member, is running in a largely new district and for a different seat. Though some of it is because the Democrat Party see Willems as a future big player, I have a feeling the huge amount of cash they injected in this race has something to do with Zumbach running strong and resonating with the voters in District 48.
I will be closely watching for this race as the returns come in Tuesday—if this seat goes Republican not only was this race a bad investment for Democrats…they are in for a bad night.
Further Information
Dan Zumbach – DanZumbach.com
Nate Willems – NateWillems.com
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