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A Rare Bi-Partisan Legislative Effort Launches Today In Des Moines

A Rare Bi-Partisan Legislative Effort Launches Today In Des Moines

Especially after the last two years of bitter political fighting in Iowa, when you hear an initiative is being co-championed by Rep. Ako Abdul-Samad, Brad Zaun and Kevin Koester–you take note.

Below is the full press release announcing this effort.  Though we are closing down shop tomorrow for Thanksgiving, on Friday we will run a detailed look at the legislation so you can form your own thoughts on its merits.

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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Tuesday, November 20, 2012

Contact:

Rev. Bobby Young, President

515-491-0905; [email protected]

Jonathan R. Narcisse, Advisor

515-770-1218; [email protected]

 

 Iowa Urban Initiative To Announce Economic Empowerment Act

On Wednesday, November 21 at 8:15 a.m. at Mt. Hebron Baptist Church, 1338 – 9th Street in Des Moines, the Iowa Urban Initiative will announce the Every Working Iowa Economic Empowerment Act or Empowerment Act campaign.

In addition to Pastor Bobby Young, President of the Initiative, a bi-partisan legislative effort will be headed by Sen. Brad Zaun (Rep.) of Urbandale who signed on to the effort this spring at an informational gathering for community leadership, Ast. Minority Leader Rep. Ako Abdul-Samad (Dem.) of Des Moines, Rep. Deborah Berry (Dem.) from Waterloo and Rep. Kevin Koester (Rep.) from Ankeny.

Other local and state activist are expected to be present also representing the political spectrum from those who were engaged in the Occupy movement to Tea Party leadership.

Statewide Campaign

Representatives Abdul-Samad and Berry will take the lead in promoting the Act statewide. Town Hall Forums will be held in Des Moines, Waterloo, Davenport, Cedar Rapids and Sioux City and a barnstorming media blitz will cover several communities throughout Iowa including Clinton, Dubuque, Burlington, Fairfield, Iowa City,  Ottumwa, Marshalltown, Mason City, Ft. Dodge, Spencer, Council Bluffs, Ames, Storm Lake and Lee County.

Senator Zaun To Head G.O.P. Support

“The reason I am here today is to support an idea that is thinking outside the box. What we have been doing the past few decades has not been working. This is a method to empower every working Iowan – to reward people for their hard  work and sacrifice; to reward Iowans by creating a way for them to invest back in their communities; to invest in their favorite non-profits; to invest in their churches and favorite organizations; to invest in rebuilding our small towns and rural Iowa; and to invest in small business and economic growth – in all 99 counties. This act will create accountability and take control from politicians and bureaucrats and put it back in the hands of the people where it belongs.”

With those words State Senator Brad Zaun (R) embraced Pastor Bobby Young, Chair of the Iowa Urban Initiative in announcing his support for the Every Working Iowan Economic Empowerment Act this spring.

Zaun stated that this Act represents not only the best of what Republicans stand for but a key to growing Iowa’s economy and population after years of decline. He especially praised the Acts shift from reliance on big government as the solution to returning power, hope and opportunity to every working Iowan.

Sen. Zaun,  one of Central Iowa’s most popular and respected Republicans, was the party’s nominee for U.S. House District 3 in 2010 and is the former ranking member on the Iowa Senate’s Ways and Means committee. Zaun currently serves on the Senate’s Commerce, Rules and Administration, Transportation and Ways and Means committees and came to the Senate in 2005 after serving as Mayor of Urbandale, Iowa from 1998 to 2005.

A District In Need

“I feel this is the first step to addressing the economic needs of community – urban and rural. It gives people the opportunities to become self-sufficient and determine their own economic destiny,” stated Rep. Berry.

Berry, a former member of the Waterloo City Council, serves perhaps Iowa’s most urban district when poverty, academic woes, health disparities and rampant violence are factored in.

“Most Iowans, including our legislators and governor, can even comprehend the dire condition of this district and the plight of urban Iowans. This Act is a powerful remedy to the pain and needs we face.”

She currently serves on the Iowa House Local Government, Public Safety, Veterans Affairs committees and the Health and Human Services Appropriations Subcommittee.

We Can End Poverty

“For most of my life schemes have been introduced to revitalize urban Des Moines and urban Iowa. In Des Moines we do not see the impact of a quarter billion in federal funds on a still blighted “Model Cities” community. We do not see the benefit of trickle down economics. What we find instead is that 70% of the families with children in the Des Moines School District, our state’s largest, can not feed them without the government putting food on their table,” stated Rep. Abdul-Samad.

“This Act is vital on a number of levels,” stated Rep. Abdul-Samad whose district is in comparable shape to Rep. Berry’s.

“First it grows the Iowa economy from the ground up. Again, trickle down economics has not worked in our state. It helps small businesses with workers and capital. It helps working families retain and invest their earnings. And, it provides vital resources to those serving communities in all 99 counties; to key rural revitalization initiatives and to business ventures at every level. Finally, this Act has the potential to end poverty in Iowa. Republicans and Democrats must join together in getting this legislation passed and starting the reconstruction of our state.

Addition of Rep. Koester

“We are honored to have Rep. Koester join this effort,” stated President Young. Many Iowans are suffering. Urban Iowans are especially struggling. The addition of Rep. Koester demonstrates that this truly is a bi-partisan initiative that will help Iowans in all 99 counties. We look forward to securing the 51 votes in the House and the 26 votes in the Senate to get this to the governor’s desk,” stated President Young.

 

How the Iowa Senate Was Lost: Part 1 of 2

How the Iowa Senate Was Lost: Part 1 of 2

The way TCR: Iowa set the table for the Iowa Senate’s 22 contested races was as follows: 9 races we predicted heavily favored one Party or the other, 8 races we predicted as leaning one way or the other, and 5 were deemed toss-ups.

The reason I was personally so bullish on a Senate takeover by Republicans was that if these predictions held Democrats would have had to run the table of the 5 toss-up races to keep control of the chamber.  In the end, and impressively I might add, this is pretty much what they did.  While most of my prognosticating here was accurate, they won victories in 4 of the 5 I deemed toss-ups and managed to flip one seat I had leaning Republican, the end result was not.

Looking For Answers

The best way to fix the problem the GOP had on Tuesday is to dissect what happened.  We will have much more on this next week, when I will post a data chart, but for now let’s take the birds-eye view of the facts in the 4 toss-up contests Republicans lost and the one race where a “lean” Republican incumbent was upset.

The spending numbers below represent the cumulative amounts of money that were spent in each race by each side in the last 3 ½ months of the campaigns (July 19 to November 2nd).  This includes the money the candidate raised and spent added to the number the Party spent for each ‘in-kind”.  Since it is common practice for both sides to have the candidate donate large portions of their funds to their Parties, to spend both on their individual behalf and on other candidates the leadership feels could use it, I have gone through all the reports to subtract out this number. The result gives an accurate view of the actual dollars spent on the race (trust me it wasn’t a barrel of fun).  Looking at the dollar amounts and the timing of ad buys for each side is very telling and we will break this down further later this week.  For now here is the general overview.

SD 49— Naeve (R) defeated by Hart (D)

This race was an open seat due to no incumbent residing in the newly drawn district.  It was a very tough district for Republicans but they had a great candidate who ran strong and should be commended.

Bottom Line= Naeve (R) was outspent by $84,000, faced a (D+3,721) registration deficit, and lost by 2,907 votes.  Despite being outspent he cut into the registration advantage by 800—he was the only Republican in this list to beat the numbers.

SD 46— Hamerlinck (R) defeated by Chris Brase (D)

This was an incumbent Republican seat that I wrongly had projected to lean Republican.  Republican Hamerlinck’s final report was not filed for some reason, but in the first filing he showed spending $30,000 on his own while the Party spent $30,000 for him.  On the other side Brase (D) spent $330,000 on the effort.  Very telling here is that of this total $259,000 in assistance came directly from the Democrat Party.

Bottom Line= It’s hard to say much on the Republican side without the last report filed, but on the Democrat side the story is a lot of money poured in to facilitate this upset.  Between July 19th and October 19th Democrats spent $167,000 before throwing in an additional $157,000 in the final few weeks.  The result in ballots cast ended up being a D+409 advantage turned into a 1,954 Democratic victory.  Something tells me this ends up being a story of an incumbent hugely outspent and not being backed up with enough dollars from the Party.

SD 36— Jech (R) defeated by Sodders (D)

This was an uphill fight from the jump for Republicans, which many say started when Jech defeated former Senator Larry McKibben in the primary.  The conventional wisdom was the Tea Party candidate Jech, who had already lost two runs at a House seat, was a far less formidable candidate than the Branstad backed McKibben.  In the final 3 ½ months Jech impressively raised over a $100,000, but the GOP only threw in $46,000 total, including a miniscule $14,000 for the final push.  Conversely, Democrats did not take Jech lightly, giving Sodders $358,000 in the final months.

Bottom Line= In the end Jech was outspent by $206,000 in an R+121 district, and she lost by 2,263 votes.  There is a ton of interesting stuff going on here.  At first glance you could explain away the GOP only giving Jech $46,000 by assuming she was polling poorly.  The only problem with that is if she was there’s no way Democrats pump $224,000 to Sodders in the final two weeks.  Clearly one Party had a bad read on this race, and it’s likely it was the Democrats.  Since Sodders won by 2,263 votes it’s hard to believe he needed the near quarter-million dollars at the end.  I tend to agree with the establishment that this race became too heavy of a lift with Jech as a candidate—even though she was badly outspent, it is still pretty amazing to have a 121 voter registration advantage going in and lose the election by well over 2000 votes.

Part 2 Upcoming

Later this week we will look at the other two painful Senate loses (SD 30 and SD 26), document some trends occurring in these five races, and then, finally, make some judgements on what could have been done differently   The ultimate goal here is not to call any particular person or organization out—the goal here is to identify the shortcomings so they can be corrected.  Ironically it appears that two years from now Senate Republicans will be in the exact same spot of needing to flip two seats for control.

If a better effort and strategy are not employed—the brutal result will surely be the same.

((To Go Straight To Part 2 Click Here))

 

 

Final Race In Our Series Of 5 Senate Races Crucial For Control: Breakdown of SD 26

Final Race In Our Series Of 5 Senate Races Crucial For Control: Breakdown of SD 26

The Candidates

Merlin Bartz (R)  vs. Mary Jo Wilhelm (D)

Two sitting senators square off here.  Sen. Merlin Bartz is in his second stint in the Iowa Legislature.  He served one term in the Iowa House, moved up to the Iowa Senate, resigned after 8 years to join the Department of Agriculture, and finally got elected back to the senate in 2008.

Sen. Mary Jo Wilhelm formerly served on the Howard County Board of Supervisors, started her own residential appraisal business, and was first elected to the Senate in 2008.

The District

Our final race takes us to Northern Iowa’s Senate District 26, where five whole counties (Worth, Chickasaw, Floyd, Mitchell, and Howard), as well as parts of Winneshiek and Cerro Gordo, make up the territory.  Not much of a built-in advantage for either candidate here as the November numbers for voter registrations are: (D-12,741) (R-12,094) (NP-17,808) (D+647).

The Race

This is without question one of the top 3 high profile legislative races in the state.  Beyond being an incumbent vs. incumbent match-up, there is a lot of committee assignments and seniority on the line for each Party.  Bartz serves on the Appropriations, Local Government, Rules and Administration, and Ways and Means committees.  Meanwhile Wilhelm serves on the Commerce, Economic Growth, Education, Human Resources, and Local Government committees.

With the following factors in play: two incumbents, a swing district, and political control of the state likely in the balance, you would expect big money to follow—and sure enough that’s exactly what we have here.  Bartz raised $150,000 on his own, while the GOP chipped in $35,000.  This pales in comparison though to Sen. Wilhelm who raised $105,000 on her own but had the Democrat Senate Majority fund throw in a mind- boggling $224,000 on her behalf.

These totals make this legislative contest the one with the highest cumulative dollars spent in Iowa this year ($514,000), and the near quarter million dollar donation from the Democrat Party made Wilhelm the second biggest recipient of help from their Party of all the legislative candidates (trailing only the $237,000 Democrats gave Nate Willems in SD 48).

Disregarding for a moment the balance of power and looking at only these two candidates, I think both sides may even agree that Bartz would be a bigger loss to Republicans than Wilhelm would be to the Democrats.  I do not know how specifically Wilhelm is involved on her side with policy and the moving parts of legislation, but I do know that Bartz has a world of both local and federal experience that Republicans often rely on.  Put simply, besides replacing him on the four committees he serves on, it’s doubtful Republicans will be able to fully replace his intellectual assets anytime soon—that is without taking it from another area.

Two quick thoughts–one for each side

If Bartz and the Republicans lose this seat by a few hundred votes or less, which is very possible, they may look back and blame a public dispute that Bartz entered into with his neighbors in Grafton over $1,100 dollars worth of fencing.  Click the link to read about this head-scratcher, but it’s safe to say this did not earn him any votes and it certainly cost him some.  Especially for a guy out raising $150,000 to keep his seat, it sure seems like paying the $1,100 on his own would have been worth it.

It’s safe to say that if Wilhelm and the Democrats are unable to pull out this race…somebody in strategic leadership will be in hot water.  The reason for this is that the spending strategy employed by Democrats has been to create a firewall by dumping huge money into a few races that they saw as unthinkable to lose, meanwhile the GOP has spread it’s money much more evenly.  Consider this, in just three senate races (48, 36, and 26) the Democrat Party chose to invest $595,000.  If on Tuesday they don’t win these races or they find themselves on the losing end of some other close races that they short-armed resources to, this strategy will shoulder a large portion of the blame.

Further Information

Merlin Bartz -  MerlinBartz.com

Mary Jo Wilhelm -  WilhelmForSenate.com

 

The 5 Senate Races Crucial For Control: Breakdown of SD 30

The 5 Senate Races Crucial For Control: Breakdown of SD 30

The Candidates

Jeff Danielson (D)  vs.  Matt Reisetter (R)

The incumbent Democrat Jeff Danielson is a veteran, a graduate of UNI, and a fire fighter in the community—so in short he is a perfect candidate on paper.  Matt Reisetter (rhymes with “Easter”) ran and almost won a House seat in 2006.  He is also a UNI graduate and for the last few years has worked for Bob Vander Plaats at The Family Leader, leaving the organization at the beginning of 2012 to start a consulting firm called SDG Solutions.

The District

Senate District 30 is an easy one to envision—basically think Cedar Falls and you pretty much have it.  This is another district where map day left a sitting Democrat with a registered voter hole to dig out of.  The most recent numbers here are: (R-13,452) (D-13,009) (NP-17,868) (R+443).

The Race

A re-count victory for Danielson a few years ago proved to Republicans that he was beatable.  If they want to be ensured of Senate control next session the best way to do so would be to finish the job this year—this seat is absolutely critical to both political parties.

Both these men are top-tier Iowa Legislative candidates.  Besides having the advantage of incumbency, like I mentioned earlier, Danielson has a near perfect resume on paper.  Reisetter is a rising star in the Iowa GOP, particularly in the more religious wings of the Party.  He has received some heat for his religious-based social views (enraging Liberals with this presentation to college students last month).  With so much of this district being involved with University of Northern Iowa students, faculty, and administrators, keeping the focus off of social issues is the best political play and largely Reisetter has realized this.

Due to the importance of this race the money has been flowing on both sides.  Danielson has hauled in an amazing $213,000, while receiving $28,000 in in-kind contributions.  Reisetter has raised an incumbent-like $141,000 which he padded with $49,000 in in-kind contributions.

In summary, Republicans couldn’t really have asked for a better candidate to take on Danielson.  Whether he is able to be successful or not may come down to how many UNI students are willing to head out and vote for President Obama.  Any way you slice it though this race will be close—and the leadership of each party will be watching with bated breath.

Further Information

Jeff Danielson—  JeffDanielson.org

Matt Reisetter—  MattforIowa.com

 

The 5 Senate Races Crucial For Control: Breakdown of SD 36

The 5 Senate Races Crucial For Control: Breakdown of SD 36

The Candidates

Steve Sodders (D)  vs.  Jane Jech (R)

Steve Sodders is the incumbent senator here; he is a Deputy Sheriff in Marshall County and first was elected to the Iowa Senate in 2008.  Jane Jech is currently a substitute teacher for the Marshalltown School District; she has 9 years of experience serving as a trustee for the Iowa Valley Community School Board.

The District

Senate District 36 is a couple of districts Northeast of Des Moines, and contains Marshall and Tama Counties and a bit of Black Hawk County.  Though Democrats need this seat badly the district on paper actually favors Republicans.  The voter registration numbers here are—(R-12,857) (D-12,736) (NP-16,488) (R+119).  Significant here is that over the last months Democrats have gone from being down almost a thousand to just a little over 100, this is clearly not a positive sign for Jech.

The Race

Much of the news in this district came in the Republican Primary where Jech surprised many by defeating the establishment’s choice of Larry McKibben, who is a former Senator.  This result was surprising for two reasons—first she has ran for the House twice before and lost and, second, not only did she defeat McKibben she crushed him by nearly 20 points.  This unconventional path that Jech took for the right to face Sodders is witnessed by her website noting that she has the endorsements of Sen. Grassley, Ben Lange, and Jerry Behn.

As for the contest against Sodders, you may have already seen the commercials in this race as both candidates are up on TV in the Des Moines media market.  Beyond being an incumbent, Sodders is also the Assistant Majority Leader in the Senate which would make this a great pick-up for Republicans.

Both Parties are spending big in this race, which proves that Democrats are taking Jech seriously even though she has lost two prior bids to join the Iowa House.  Sodders has raised $92,000 on his own and has received $137,000 in in-kind contributions largely from the Democrat Senate Majority Fund.  Jech had raised $62,000 and has had the GOP kick in $32,000.

Jech is clearly a Tea Party candidate, which as long as she is able to win is a great thing for Republicans.  The flip side of this is that if she is not able to prevail she will join the list of candidates self-identified as Tea Party or Libertarian that cost the Republican Party influence over our state in the next two years.  This list essentially includes Senate District 34, and quite possibly could include Jake Highfill in HD 39.  If these races cost Republicans seats, expect the battle raging between the factions inside the Republican Party to escalate in the coming months.

I am currently not taking sides in this battle, and I operate on the George Will maxim of supporting “the most Conservative candidate that can win”.  This cycle, the results for Jech in SD 36, Ryan Flood in SD 34, and Jake Highfill in HD 39 will go a long way in determining how conservative candidates in Iowa can be and still win.  I am certainly pulling for all of them—but if they are unable to deliver I will advocate in the future for candidates with a better chance of actually obtaining the seats that will allow Republicans to implement reform in Iowa.

Further Information

Steve Sodders— Senate.Iowa.Gov/Sodders/

Jane Jech—  JaneJech.com

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