by | Oct 16, 2012
((Click for TCR: Iowa’s complete overview of the races that will decide the Iowa Senate))
The Candidates
Tom Courtney (D) vs. Bradley Bourn (R)
Tom Courtney is the incumbent in the race and currently serves as the Senate Majority Whip and as the Democrat Chair of the Government Oversight Committee. Bradley Bourn retired from the military in 2009 after 24 years, and in that same year unsuccessfully ran for a seat on the Burlington City Council. He has started a small business called Voil Fuel & Services, which produces biofuel from used cooking oil.
The District
Senate District 44 sits in the Southeastern corner of Iowa and is composed of Des Moines and Louisa Counties, and the Western half of Muscatine County. The registered voter situation here is: (D-14,738) (R-10,220) (NP-12,526), which leaves a built in advantage of 4,518 potential Party voters for Senator Courtney.
The Race
Courtney, a former Burlington School Board member, was first elected to the Iowa Senate mid-term in 2000. He won re-election in 2002 before winning the seat again in 2004 and 2008. Throughout his tenure he has tried several times to raise Iowa’s minimum wage, most recently trying to pass a bill that would have increased it from $7.25 to $10.00.
He has been in the news in the last two weeks for efforts to have Secretary of States Matt Schultz audited for using Help America Vote Act funds to purge Iowa’s voter rolls of non-eligible voters. The success of this effort will likely not be known till after the election, and it will be interesting to see if the publicity this has earned him right before November’s vote will be an advantage or if it will be offset by motivating Republicans in this district to turn out. Based on his voter registration edge, I probably would have advised him not to play this card, as the risk seems to outweigh the reward.
Besides his military background, Bourn is running as a staunch fiscal and social conservative. Lowering state spending and taxes are his key issues, telling local media outlets that, “I worked hard all my life. I paid a lot of taxes in my lifetime. I know a lot of people, obviously, have and I’m tired of money just being thrown down the drain.â€Â Speaking on Iowa spending more money that it takes in each year he said, “That’s just unacceptable. I’m tired of having productive people’s money being given to the unproductiveâ€.
Bourn is likely to hit Courtney on spending issues and his Government Oversight Committee’s failure to detect and stop the Iowa Film Office’s massive scandal from a few years ago. Though these lines of attack are effective, I have this seat in the end being won by Senator Courtney. The main reasons are that Courtney has been an outspoken and active member of the Democrat Caucus, the voters know what they have in him, and he has not been unseated in three previous cycles. On top of this he had five times more cash on hand than Broun as of July 19th.
What we have here is a classic Liberal vs. Conservative match-up. Knowing that Bourn is a highly credible challenger will likely cause Democrats in the district to head out to the polls, and I see Courtney scoring a victory largely as a result of his voter registration advantage.
Further Information
Sen. Tom Courtney – Iowa Senate Page * Facebook Page
Bradley Bourn – Bourn4Senate.com
((TCR: Iowa’s Complete Overview of the Struggle for the Senate))
by | Oct 15, 2012
Iowans all across the state were shocked and saddened this morning by the news that Senator Pat Ward had passed away after losing her battle with breast cancer. She had served as a Republican in the Iowa Senate since 2004 and was an extremely respected woman and legislator. The following are statements released by Governor Branstad, Lt. Governor Kim Reynolds, and Republican Party of Iowa Chairman A.J Spiker, and TCR Publisher Art Smith.
All of us at The Conservative Reader pass on our sincere condolences to the Ward family. Â She will be missed.
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Governor Branstad
“I was with shock and sadness that learned of my friend Pat Ward’s passing. She had a wonderful career in public service, and was such a caring and passionate person. As a senator, she was a champion for her district, took the time to get to know the issues, and worked in a bipartisan manner to enact meaningful legislation on behalf of her constituents. She always had a positive outlook on life, even in illness, and her smile would brighten each room she entered. The thoughts and prayers of Chris and I are extended to her large network of family, friends and constituents.â€
Lt. Governor Reynolds
“Having served with Pat in the Senate, I witnessed firsthand her dedication to the state of Iowa, and her incredible work every day on behalf of her constituents. Pat Ward was a dear friend, and the news of her passing is incredibly difficult and painful to hear. I hope all Iowans will look at her example, the way she cared for others and worked to make the world a better place, and remember her significant life and achievements. Our administration will miss her as a policy maker, and we all will personally miss her as a friend.â€
RPI Chairman A.J Spiker
“I am saddened to learn of the passing of Iowa State Senator Pat Ward. Public service and dedication to the people of Iowa were hallmarks of her career. On behalf of all Iowa Republicans, I would like to express our gratitude for Pat’s service to the people of Iowa. Our thoughts and prayers are with Pat’s friends and family during this difficult time.”
TCR Publisher Art Smith
“Pat was a kind and dedicated woman who was always interested in hearing the opinions of others, especially her constituents.  During my brief opportunities in speaking with Pat, I found her to be charming and very well informed on the issues.  As my senator, I was surprised that she not only remembered me whenever we crossed paths, but on our first acquaintance quickly connected me to a single letter I had written her in the past.  I sincerely admired her person-ability.”
by | Oct 10, 2012
(For a complete overview by TCR:Iowa of the Iowa Senate races click here)
The Candidates
Jerry Behn (R) vs. Shelly Stotts (D)
Jerry Behn is the incumbent and was elected to the Senate in 1995 after serving one year as Boone County Supervisor. He was then elected Senate Minority leader on November 10th, 2011. Shelly Stotts has been a teacher in Boone for the last 28 years, has her Masters Degree in Education, and is a past president of the Boone Educators Association.
The District
Senate District 24 sits due North of Dallas County. It’s new configuration after redistricting shaves off Dallas County and replaces it with the Southeastern portion of Webster County and the Northwestern corner of Story County. These slivers join all of Hamilton, Greene, and Boone Counties to construct SD 24. The registered voter numbers here are less favorable to Jerry Behn than his old district was, though he still holds an advantage of R+1,379. The rest of the numbers are: (R-13,465) (D-12,086) (NP-14,553), with the district total being 40,132.
The Race
Much like Senate District 38, this goes in the leaner column by just a hair and should be a victory for Behn. In addition to campaigning hard, Jerry Behn has been one of the point men rolling out the Republican legislative agenda titled “Iowa Strong“—which is a fairly specific, multi-issue priorities list for the upcoming session.
Despite being a well-liked legislator, a fantastic spokesman for the Republican Party, and a likely victor in his November re-election bid—Behn has come under fire this year from fellow Republicans for not raising the kind of funds necessary for a Republican takeover of the Senate. There is really no way to say the criticism is unjustified, as part of his job as minority leader is building a war chest that can be distributed to other Republican candidates throughout the state. As of the last filing period he was outraised by his counterpart, Democratic Majority Leader Mike Gronstal, by more than $416,000.
Democrat Shelly Stotts is attempting to transition from a long career in teaching to Senator by taking down the highest ranking Republican in the Senate. Though the registration advantage is surely able to be overcome, Mrs. Stotts will have a hard time doing so for two major reasons. First, though Behn’s cash on hand is low for a Minority Leader, he still has $83,383 in the bank to Stotts’ $1,528. Secondly, she has identified her political views on her own Facebook page as “liberalâ€. Though laudable for her honesty—this self-description combined with her money disadvantage is not a recipe for an upset.
Frankly, I am surprised that more Democrats have not stepped up to the plate with donations. You would expect this to be the case being that the newly drawn district left a Republican Senate Minority Leader with such a small voter registration advantage. Put simply it would be a shock not to see Jerry Behn back in the Senate in 2013—and the possibility of him being at the helm of a newly minted Republican majority is certainly within reach.
Further Information
Jerry Behn – Candidate Profile
Shelly Stotts – Facebook Page
(Complete TCR: Iowa overview of the races crucial to Republicans winning a majority in the Iowa Senate)
by | Oct 5, 2012
With Part 1 of this story covering the entire forum minus the last five minutes, lets dig right into the controversy that marked the conclusion of Monday’s forum and went on to engulf the local media in the following days.
What Was Said
For those who have not heard or read it yet, here is the transcript of the most controversial remarks from Sheriff McCarthy’s closing statement:
“…Then the other day I opened his website and he’s got a reference on there to the Oath Keepers. The Oath Keepers! It’s a group that affiliated with this (holds up book), but they are the big boys.  These are people on a Patriots list from the National Poverty Law Center, a watch list for extreme radicalism. (Timothy) McVeigh died going to his grave saying that he was that kind of patriot. This guy that runs the Oath Keepers movement, who says he’s a Constitutionalist, has now come out on his website and said it’s time to arm because we think Obama might win. It’s time to arm, and it’s also time to store food for the war that’s coming (crowd starts booing). This is the kind of garbage you’re going to get if he (points to Charleston) is elected. It’s really about as radical as it gets.â€
Contributing Factors
Though utterly indefensible and unjustified, there are two factors that should at least be understood when thinking about McCarthy’s attitude and conduct on this night.
I believe it fair to realize that for the last year or so Sheriff McCarthy has been listening to and watching Dan Charleston run for his job by basically saying that his department is a poorly run outfit plagued by low morale that needs whole-sale changes to better serve and protect the people of Polk County. I am not for a moment saying that these things are untrue, but I am saying that very few of us, if any, have experienced this situation—and clearly it would be extremely tough and frustrating. To continually hear on the radio strong criticism that you are failing in a job you are personally invested in and passionate about is no small thing, and certainly would wear on anybody. Secondly, and unknown to me until after the fact, apparently Sheriff McCarthy’s own brother was killed in the Oklahoma City Bombing carried out by Timothy McVeigh.
The Bottom Line
The above information is presented solely to give some context to an allegation and line of logic that is nothing short of disgraceful and bizarre—there is just no getting around that. While the whole closing statement was overboard, the last sentence elevated the charge to a different level.
It’s one thing to raise questions about a quote on Dan Charleston’s website from some group who you view to be extremist in order to cast doubt about where your opponent is coming from—some may even define this as “hard ball†politics (I would use the word “dirtyâ€). It is yet another step-up to imply that all this groups’ beliefs and actions can be attributed to Charleston. Rather unfortunately Sheriff McCarthy didn’t even stop here.
Though it was hard to hear in the auditorium at the time due to the crowds audible gasp and objections, the last sentence that McCarthy uttered that night was, “And this is the kind of garbage you are going to get if he is elected, it’s really about as radical as you can get.â€Â Beyond being baseless, irrational, and reckless—this is legal slander that demands, in the least, a public apology.
Impact On This Race
In my view this stands as the second most bizarre episode in Iowa politics this year—bested only by Republican Senate candidate Randi Shannon’s break from reality—and will certainly hurt his chances in the November election. Besides being a huge public relations misstep, McCarthy’s conduct and slander was a head-scratcher politically, as it runs counter to the broader-themed case he has been making against Charleston from the beginning.
Besides saying that Charleston is wrong on the issues, McCarthy’s general assertion to voters is that he is more professional and well-mannered while Charleston’s temperament and straight-talking boldness are the wrong traits to have heading the Sheriff’s Department. It is beyond ironic that the man making this case, even saying himself during the forum that you can’t “bare your soul on every social issueâ€, would himself make a reckless and bizarre allegation by publically “baring†his own outlandish and paranoid beliefs about Dan Charleston. It is truly as unbelievable and nonsensical as it is hypocritical.
The fact that these two candidates have opposite beliefs on nearly every issue already presented a clear choice for the citizens of Polk County.  Sheriff McCarthy’s outlandish display in the waning moments of Monday’s forum have made this picture’s contrast even sharper…and made the prospect of him keeping his job far less likely.
by | Oct 1, 2012
(For a complete overview of the Iowa Senate races click here)
The Candidates
Mike Gronstal (D) vs. Al Ringgenberg (R)
Mike Gronstal is the longtime incumbent, and Al Riggenberg is a retired Air Force Colonel and former prosecutor.
The District
Senate District 8 is on the Southwestern border of Iowa and is essentially made up of the city of Council Bluffs. Incumbent Mike Gronstal was first elected to the Iowa House in 1982. After serving one term there he moved up to the Senate in 1986, and has been the Democratic Leader in that body for the last 15 years. In short, he is the definition of an entrenched Democrat legis-saur (legislator+dinosaur). The registered voter breakdown for SD 8 is (D-10,606) (R-10,020) (NP-10,720), leaving a D+586 advantage.
The Race
At the beginning of campaign season Republicans rightfully believed this year was the best shot they have had to unseat their biggest political enemy. What has transpired since is nothing short of depressing for the Iowa GOP, and the word I hear from insiders is the chances of flipping this seat are now very low.  The reasons for the initial Republican optimism were (1) the district was almost dead even, with Independents sure to be ruffled up by Gronstal’s numerous high-profile legislative blockades, and (2) they managed to field a great candidate on paper in retired Colonel Al Ringgenberg.
To this point in the campaign, for whatever reason, Ringgenberg has failed to gain much traction. Perhaps more importantly he has failed to generate the kind of money it would take to compete with Gronstal’s massive war-chest. No matter how much Ringgenberg raised he was not going to be in the ballpark of Gronstal’s unbelievable $547,158.00, but there is no getting around his disappointing cash on hand number of $6,987.00 (which includes a $2,000 loan to himself).
There is still plenty of time, but the Ringgenberg campaign really needs to catch fire and take the fight to Gronstal. If he is unable to bank some more money soon he will have a difficult time doing so with $7,000 (as of July 19th). At the moment I unfortunately have this seat leaning strongly Democrat. You will see by following the link below that Gronstal is yet another Iowa Democrat who has chosen to disclose absolutely nothing on where he stands on current issues or his future political goals on his website. This practice is especially shameful for a longtime Majority leader who is personally responsible for blocking Iowans from having a voice on countless issues (including tax reform and gay marriage).
Further Information
Al Ringgenberg – ColonelAl.com
Mike Gronstal – MikeGronstal.com
