by | Apr 16, 2013
Question: What has happened so far at the Statehouse this session?
Answer: Mostly a whole lot of nothing.
With potentially as little as three weeks left before they gavel out this has been one of the most uneventful sessions since I began following them closely. There could still be some fireworks in store as the larger ticket items get discussed, but as it stands now nearly everything Governor Branstad has signed into law has been with near unanimous consent from both Parties. In fact, of the 36 bills he has signed so far most have been technical or clerical items passed with no dissent—and all but a couple have had no more than 3 no votes between the two chambers (notable exceptions being SF 184 and HF 160).
Conservatives Left with Little to Cheer About
The fact that divided government is not producing sweeping changes is hardly surprising, but getting no movement whatsoever on traditionally non-entrenched ideological issues is disheartening. For me personally these disappointments include the first funnel costing any chance of banning Automated Traffic Enforcement and the second funnel claiming the Voter ID bill. Both these issues have a clear majority of public support (Voter ID routinely gets well over 70% in public polls), and despite this couldn’t even receive the dignity of a vote.
Additionally, the Education Reform effort (yes, even the version the Republican House passed with no inter-Party dissent) is a “solution†few true Conservatives can embrace. Firstly, it is dumping $200 million more dollars into a system that already has received a 35.4% funding increase since 2002—with no discernible benefit in most districts. And secondly, the kind of actionable teacher evaluation, similar to what exists in the private sector, is nowhere to be found. Instead, in my view, what this reform offers is a largely a bunch of feel good jargon about “laddersâ€, “career pathwaysâ€, “mentorsâ€, and “master teachersâ€â€”now does that sound like a recipe for fixing a failing school?
In some way this issue has been absurdly overcomplicated, how about teachers just teach kids the information in their textbooks like miraculously you were able to do in the 1990’s and we’ll call it even. In fact, prove you can do so and we will give you a nice raise…you know the way it has worked for all the rest of us in the private sector since our birth.
While it is true that many strong home schooling amendments got passed by the House, A) the big ones won’t make it to the Governor’s desk, and B) even if they did it still wouldn’t make this effort worthwhile. And while there are a few bright spots (HF 625 which expands STO’s), there was no movement of Sen. Zaun’s proposal last session to give parents true schools choice, nor was there any effort made to ensure we have strict 3rd grade retention for reading proficiency.
Tax Reform the Big Prize…But Likely to Elude Again
Just like last session, there was talk by both sides at the beginning that something needed to get done here, but the writing is on the wall that it won’t.
Largely this is because the players and the policies they are pushing for are essentially unchanged from last year. Additionally I am starting to think that Sen. Gronstal knows he controls only one branch—but perhaps has the trump card in this standoff.
The way I have started to look at this is to see the similarities between this situation and the fiscal cliff scenario faced by Republicans on the Federal level at the end of last year. If you recall, Republicans were forced into caving because the specific position they were in—if no deal was struck taxes on everyone in the country would go up on January 1st. Similarly, here in Iowa if nothing gets done our tax rates will continue to climb—a reality that would surely bother Republicans more than Democrats. Not only does this give Gronstal more leverage in cutting a deal to avoid the tax hikes, if he can manage to stave off a deal until rates are raised he is in the position of deciding then who “deserves†tax cuts. As frustrating as this tactic is for Republicans, as long as high taxes don’t cost Democrats their majority it is truly brilliant politics.
The Truth As I see ItÂ
I would love to be able to say everything is looking up here in Iowa and nationwide, but the evidence disagrees. Coming off a brutal performance last November when Mitt Romney was unable to defeat a president with a terrible record and Republicans failed to take the Iowa Senate, we are now seeing the results. This legislative session is almost a mirror copy of the last and the chances of anything passing at all are slim–and unfortunately the chances of passing any significant Conservative policy is hopeless. Simply put, at the moment the landscape is virtually barren when it comes to potential political victories.
Elections indeed have consequences–and Conservatives are feeling them now. We must do better as a Party going forward–2014 awaits and brings another chance to make a profound and positive legislative impact.
by | Apr 10, 2013
Though it will fall short of the intense attention we receive during Presidential years, November 2014 in Iowa will develop into a fierce battleground for both political parties. In spite of the gubernatorial election on the ballot the prize for each side will be the open US Senate seat vacated by Tom Harkin.
While it is a virtual certainty that Bruce Braley will be the Democrat candidate in this race the Republican field is wide open, with no one yet confirming a run. As it stands now Rep. Steve King has been given the “first right of refusal†by fellow potential candidates Kim Reynolds and Bill Northey, and it is widely believed he will have decided by May 1st. One way or another, the field will become clear soon after. In the meantime, here is a first look at the dynamics if the matchup were King vs. Braley.
The Numbers
On last weekend’s Iowa Press Steve King referred to a Republican winning the seat as a “slightly uphill battleâ€â€”and the numbers indeed bear this out. Though they were highly inflated due to it being a Presidential election year, the cumulative votes cast last year in Iowa’s four Congressional districts reveal the Republican will be starting in an electoral hole. In total the four Congressional Democratic candidates (Braley, Loebsack, Boswell, and Vilsack) received 772,387 votes, while the four Republican candidates (Lange, Archer, Latham, and King) received 726,505 votes (D+45,882).
Obviously this is too broad a measure to be definitive but it does give a feel for the obstacles the Republican will face. Far more informative is looking at how Braley and King faired in their individual races. In this scenario the candidate and the electorate in their districts remain the same and the only variable that changes is the opponent. What the numbers show is that Bruce Braley is a better performing candidate than Steve King—something that will likely come as a surprise to many Republicans.
Last cycle Braley went in with a 25,420 voter registration advantage in HD 1 over Ben Lange but won by 59,957—beating the numbers by 34,537. Meanwhile King went in with a 50,396 voter registration advantage in HD 4 over Christie Vilsack but won by only 30,593 votes—losing the numbers by 19,803.
Yes Braley and Vilsack’s numbers were surely inflated due to Obama being on the ballot, and King and Lange were done no favors by Romney’s trouble with Independents, but there is still cause for concern. This is due to the fact that some of this inflated total was surely offset by King facing a far weaker opponent than Braley—Lange was a proven campaigner who came within 4,000 votes of beating Braley in 2010 while Vilsack proved to be an awful candidate who ran a terrible campaign.
These facts are certainly not to suggest a Republican cannot win the seat, they merely offer some context on the difficulties involved and likely explain the caution potential candidates are proceeding with.
Braley vs. King on Paper
The perplexing thing about this potential matchup is that on paper King is a far superior candidate to Braley. While King started an earth moving construction company from scratch, Braley is a trial lawyer and former head of the Iowa Trial Lawyers Association. Though it is true King has a visceral way of approaching issues and a knack for the ill-worded statement, Braley’s voting record reveals he is without a doubt a west-coast Liberal who just happens to reside in Iowa. In fact, besides voting with Democrats and Obama’s agenda 98% of the time in 2008, 99% in 2009, and 98% in 2010, since January 2007 he has voted 91% of the time with Nancy Pelosi. Among these votes of course are Cap & Trade, Dodd-Frank, Obamacare, and authorizing more than $6 trillion in debt over the last four years.
The number one objective for the campaign of whatever Republican takes on Braley will be getting the word out on his voting record. And if the above facts aren’t enough evidence of his poor decision making for Independents in Iowa—you can add he was one of the first to endorse fellow trial lawyer John Edwards for president in 2008.
My Take
In many Republican circles it has become a common belief that Steve King can’t win a statewide race—I do not concur. Perhaps I’d see more truth in this if the candidate on the other side was a moderate instead of one of the most Liberal politicians in the country—funny how we never hear Bruce Braley can’t win a statewide race.
That being said, I am of the belief that our strongest candidate by a longshot would be Kim Reynolds—and we would not risk a House seat in the process. While he would surely have a shot if he ran, undoubtedly the media would exclusively focus on King’s past statements and ignore Braley’s voting record.
In the end I predict that King will decide against running. Whether he proves me wrong or not, whoever takes up this task will have to run hard. Though this is a realistic opportunity for Republicans the numbers show that it indeed will be a “slightly uphill battleâ€.
by | Apr 8, 2013
Proving his concern about our country’s national debt wasn’t mere campaign lip service, Congressman Tom Latham continued to warn against the perils of a $17 trillion debt in Urbandale on Friday. He joined an event hosted by the Iowa chapter of Fix The Debt and toured the facility of Jon Troen’s ColorFX company.
Speaking to a group of ColorFX employees Latham seemed hopeful a long-term solution could be agreed to this year saying, “I think there is a real chance of getting a bi-partisan deal passed. It has to be done to ensure our nation’s economic and fiscal security.â€Â As the owner of a company trying to navigate through an increasingly shaky economy, ColorFX owner Jon Troen fully concurred by stating, “The national debt affects everyone and it has a direct impact on how small business owners like me run and manage their operations.â€
Mr. Latham’s participation in these types of forums should be heartening to all Iowans, regardless of their political persuasion, who realize continued record deficit spending is fatal to our entire population. I have reported here before that a close look at Rep. Latham’s voting record the last several years reveals a rock-solid fiscal conservative unwilling to mortgage the future for temporary political gains. With so many politicians these days willing to speak one way around election time and then consistently vote the other way when the spotlight fades, Iowa is lucky to have someone willing to both speak out and vote for their convictions.
Below are some pictures from the event:
by | Mar 11, 2013
A very worthwhile group has come to Iowa recently and their mission is to solve the debt crisis that America is currently headed for. “Fix The Debt Iowa” is one of the 23 state chapters of a larger group which can be found at FixThe Debt.org.
Last week they released a short web video in Iowa equating our nations fiscal problems with the budget of a middle-class family–which is cleverly done by adding or subtracting eight zeros.
I am happy to see efforts being made to frame the facts of this issue in a way that even the non-politically involved can understand. Since the national debt is now in excess of 16 million separate units of a million dollars, quantifying the problem is getting exceedingly difficult.
Below is the video, and if you are so inclined you can go to FixTheDebt.org to sign their petition.
by | Feb 24, 2013
Late last week we brought you a message from Polk County Chair candidate Will Rogers. Today we bring you a word from the other candidate in the race, Dave Edwards. One of these two men will be declared leader of the Polk County GOP Tuesday evening.
Last year Mr. Edwards ran for the Iowa Senate in District 16 and, though he lost, showed a great deal of courage in running in the first place. The voter registration numbers for this district on the day of the vote were: D-16,353; R-7,591; NP-10,410…enough said.  Though running against tremendous odds, Edwards put in a lot of work and was unafraid to talk about the non-PC issues negatively impacting his district. If he should prevail Tuesday he will have a first-hand perspective on just how steep a climb some of the districts in the county have become.
Though there is a great deal of contrast between these two candidates both in style and background, I am convinced that either will bring a unique set of helpful traits to the Party.
Below is the full transcript of Mr. Edwards’ letter to The Conservative Reader: Iowa.
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To begin with, I want to thank the readers of your publication for their support of my Senate campaign in last year’s election. We were blessed with a fantastic outpouring of volunteers – from parades, to envelope stuffing, to door knocking. It was a lot of hard work, but a very rewarding experience. Volunteers like you are what it is going to take to reclaim our state and our country and we need to get fired up now to win that battle and help the Republican Party to grow and be the messenger for prosperity and freedom that our nation so sorely needs right now.
I am running for Polk County Republican Party Chairman because I want to stand beside you in that fight to beat back the liberals here in our county.
I have served my community in various ways over the years. In the past, I’ve served as a member of Des Moines’ Housing Appeals Board as well as several years as a board member for the Valley High Manor Neighborhood Association. Currently, I am a proud member of the Carlisle VFW Post 2099, and serve in the Color Guard there, helping to provide flag and rifle ceremony presence at funerals for those who have served in the military. I have put in many hours as a softball coach for various teams for my seven children for the last twenty years. Also, my wife of 27 years, Teressa, and I, host a weekly family Bible fellowship which is held in our home.
Last March, I threw my hat into the ring as a Republican candidate for Iowa Senate District 16, running against a 16-year Democratic incumbent. As a candidate for the Iowa Senate, I walked hundreds of miles and spent countless hours talking to voters in my district. I met a tremendous number of Republicans and Independents who agreed with us in principle, but did not feel actively engaged with our efforts.
I believe that there is an opportunity right now to bring these voters into the Polk County Republican Party by having leadership in the party that they can relate to and showing them the tremendous success we can have as a party by promoting our principles of limited government and personal responsibility.
I envision a Polk County Republican Party that takes the next step here to grow and strengthen itself even more. With Iowa’s first in the nation status, I believe eyes across the country are directed at this state. I believe that with the right chairman and the right direction, Polk County can be seen as an example not just in Iowa, but across the country. We are well poised to bring Polk County to a higher level with the right leadership and vision. I have some specific goals for fundraising and voter contact/registration that I would like to achieve as Chairman, but I believe the most important part of my job will be to energize our base and build grassroots enthusiasm and activism to lead to a Republican victory in 2014 and beyond.
I am running for chairman of the Polk County Republican Party because right now this party is at a crossroads. Right now, there is a very real disconnect among the leadership and the members of the Republican Party in Polk County. This disconnect is pretty obvious from the Central Committee meetings, on down to the lack of voter enthusiasm I saw while on the campaign trail.
This county needs a leader that can work with everyone in the party. I believe I am that leader. I believe my experience on the campaign trail is proof of my commitment to the Republican party and of my strong work ethic. My campaign generated excitement across a broad spectrum of voters. I believe that was because I was a candidate people could relate to. I mentioned earlier all of those unengaged Republican voters that I met while on the campaign trail. I believe this is a prime time to draw those voters into active involvement in the party by giving them party leadership they can trust and relate to. I believe that my experience gives me tremendous knowledge about energizing grassroots activists and continuing to keep enthusiasm there.
In the end, all of our efforts will be measured out on election day. Having run my own campaign I know first-hand what local candidates need in order to be successful. And the bottom line comes down to grass-roots organizing. Personal contact during a campaign is the single most effective method of turning out voters. We need to re-vamp our efforts at organizing our House Districts down to the precinct levels. We need to continually refresh and update data and volunteers so that candidates have an instant and built-in network to hit the campaign trail running. And we need to host training to enable volunteers and candidates to maximize their efforts.
It is said that a house divided will not stand. I am asking for a chance to pull the people of this party together and make the Polk County Republican Party better than it has ever been. With your support, I look forward to advancing our conservative principles here in Polk County, and helping turn Iowa back to a red state once again. Please make sure you are there for this important vote on Tuesday, February 26, 7:00pm at the Holiday Inn, Mercy Campus at 1050 – 6th Avenue in Des Moines.