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Iowa Votes 2012: Preview of Coverage

Iowa Votes 2012: Preview of Coverage

Over the past several weeks we have taken an in-depth look at each of the 8 Iowa Senate races TCR: Iowa has deemed as leaning either Republican or Democrat.  From now untill election day we are moving on to take a closer look at the 5 Senate races we feel will determine control of the Iowa Senate–and hence control of the Iowa Legislature for the next two years.  These races crucial for control are SD 49, SD 48, SD 36, SD 30, and SD 26.

In addition to looking at these 5 races, on November 4th we will look at the districts where Republicans blew major oppurtunities and therefore are not competetive, and on November 5th we will provide a guide for what to watch for on election night.

Here is a compilation of links to the 8 Senate Leaners we have covered:

Senate District 14 – Amy Sinclair (R)  vs.  Dick Schrad (D)

Senate District 22 – Pat Ward (R)  vs.  Desmund Adams (D)

Senate District 8 – Mike Gronstal (D)  vs.  Al Ringenneberg (R)

Seante District 42 – Rich Taylor (D)  vs.  Larry Kruse (R)

Senate District 38 – Tim Kapucian (R)  vs.  Shelley Parbs (D)

Senate District 24 – Jerry Behn (R)  vs.  Shelly Stotts (D)

Senate District 44 -  Tom Courtney (D)  vs.  Bradley Bourn (R)

Senate District 46 -  Shawn Hamerlinck (R)  vs.  Chris Brase (D)

Iowa Senate Races: A Closer Look At The Leaners (SD 44)

Iowa Senate Races: A Closer Look At The Leaners (SD 44)

((Click for TCR: Iowa’s complete overview of the races that will decide the Iowa Senate))

The Candidates

Tom Courtney (D)  vs.  Bradley Bourn (R)

Tom Courtney is the incumbent in the race and currently serves as the Senate Majority Whip and as the Democrat Chair of the Government Oversight Committee.  Bradley Bourn retired from the military in 2009 after 24 years, and in that same year unsuccessfully ran for a seat on the Burlington City Council.  He has started a small business called Voil Fuel & Services, which produces biofuel from used cooking oil.

The District

Senate District 44 sits in the Southeastern corner of Iowa and is composed of Des Moines and Louisa Counties, and the Western half of Muscatine County.  The registered voter situation here is: (D-14,738) (R-10,220) (NP-12,526), which leaves a built in advantage of 4,518 potential Party voters for Senator Courtney.

The Race

Courtney, a former Burlington School Board member, was first elected to the Iowa Senate mid-term in 2000.  He won re-election in 2002 before winning the seat again in 2004 and 2008.  Throughout his tenure he has tried several times to raise Iowa’s minimum wage, most recently trying to pass a bill that would have increased it from $7.25 to $10.00.

He has been in the news in the last two weeks for efforts to have Secretary of States Matt Schultz audited for using Help America Vote Act funds to purge Iowa’s voter rolls of non-eligible voters.  The success of this effort will likely not be known till after the election, and it will be interesting to see if the publicity this has earned him right before November’s vote will be an advantage or if it will be offset by motivating Republicans in this district to turn out.  Based on his voter registration edge, I probably would have advised him not to play this card, as the risk seems to outweigh the reward.

Besides his military background, Bourn is running as a staunch fiscal and social conservative.  Lowering state spending and taxes are his key issues, telling local media outlets that, “I worked hard all my life.  I paid a lot of taxes in my lifetime.  I know a lot of people, obviously, have and I’m tired of money just being thrown down the drain.”  Speaking on Iowa spending more money that it takes in each year he said, “That’s just unacceptable.  I’m tired of having productive people’s money being given to the unproductive”.

Bourn is likely to hit Courtney on spending issues and his Government Oversight Committee’s failure to detect and stop the Iowa Film Office’s massive scandal from a few years ago.  Though these lines of attack are effective, I have this seat in the end being won by Senator Courtney.  The main reasons are that Courtney has been an outspoken and active member of the Democrat Caucus, the voters know what they have in him, and he has not been unseated in three previous cycles.  On top of this he had five times more cash on hand than Broun as of July 19th.

What we have here is a classic Liberal vs. Conservative match-up.  Knowing that Bourn is a highly credible challenger will likely cause Democrats in the district to head out to the polls, and I see Courtney scoring a victory largely as a result of his voter registration advantage.

Further Information

Sen. Tom Courtney – Iowa Senate Page * Facebook Page

Bradley Bourn – Bourn4Senate.com

 

((TCR: Iowa’s Complete Overview of the Struggle for the Senate))

 

Iowa Senate Races: A Closer Look At The Leaners (SD 38)

Iowa Senate Races: A Closer Look At The Leaners (SD 38)

(For a complete overview by TCR: Iowa of the Iowa Senate races click here)

The Candidates

Tim Kapucian (R)  vs.  Shelley Parbs (D)

Tim Kapucian is the incumbent, having first been elected to the Senate in 2009.  Shelley Parbs is a first time candidate and a production worker at Rockwell-Collins.

The District

Iowa Senate District 38 is located Northeast of Des Moines, halfway between Polk County and the Illinois border.  It is made up entirely of three whole counties (Poweshiek, Iowa, and Benton).  The number breakdown of registered voters in SD 38 is as follows: (R-12,549) (D-10,963) (NP-16,512), which leaves a Republican advantage of +1,586.

The Race

Since being elected in 2009 Tim Kapucian has taken on a high profile role in the Senate minority.  This includes, but is not limited to, being elected Assistant Republican Leader and being the ranking member of the Senate Transportation Committee and the Transportation, Infrastructure and Capitals Appropriations Subcommittee.  The Bleeding Heartland makes the very good observation that Democrats will attack hard on the fact that he is on the record twice voting for an increase in the per-gallon tax on gasoline.  Kapucian has gotten major backing from Farm Bureau and, beyond being a farmer himself, this is likely not a coincidence as they spent the last year leaning on Republicans to support this unpopular price hike.

Shelley Parbs easily won a three way Democratic Primary to earn the right to take on Kapucian.  She is a production worker with Rockwell-Collins and a member of the union, IBEW.  Mrs. Parbs appears to be another Democratic labor union candidate (she’s been endorsed by every union in a 50 mile radius), and yet another Democratic candidate with absolutely no information on her campaign website regarding her political views or agenda.  All the visitor gets is that Parbs wants to “invest in worker training” and “make sure jobless Iowans get the help they need to get back on thier feet”.  This is the case with so many of these Democrat candidates that it is beyond a trend and is surely an intentional strategy from the political higher-ups in the Party.  How they are expecting to bring anyone into the campaign with no information on issues, not even platitudes—fully escapes me.

This seat is a strong Republican leaner because the challenger is not that threatening and the Republican Party will not let Kapucian go without plenty of resources and attention.  He made not need much help, as the fact that he already had a $41 thousand to $15 thousand dollar cash on hand advantage as of July 19th shows he doesn’t exactly struggle in the fund raising department.

It strikes me that this race could be very interesting if there was a Democrat surge for the candidate on the presidential ballot, as there was in 2008 for Obama.  The fact is this will not be the case in 2012 and Senator Kapucian should be returning to the Senate, perhaps in the majority, in 2013.

Further Information

Tim Kapucian — Senate Republican Caucus page

Shelley Parbs — Shelley4Senate

(Complete TCR: Iowa overview of the races crucial to Republicans winning a majority in the Iowa Senate)

 

Polk County Sheriff Candidate Forum:  A Tense Night Concludes with Bill McCarthy Outrageously Going “Timothy McVeigh” on Dan Charleston (Part 1 of 2)

Polk County Sheriff Candidate Forum: A Tense Night Concludes with Bill McCarthy Outrageously Going “Timothy McVeigh” on Dan Charleston (Part 1 of 2)

Much of the story from Monday night’s forum between current Polk County Sheriff Bill McCarthy and Sheriff Candidate Dan Charleston occurred in the final minutes where, by any reasonable standard, Bill McCarthy crossed the line from aggressively campaigning to keep his job—to down-right personal slander.  We will get to that in due time, but first here is a quick re-cap of the event and the many defining differences between these two men that are at the core of this simmering race.

The Event

The forum was held in the North High School auditorium, where a large crowd left only the back few rows of seats empty, and was put on by a consortium of neighborhood groups called the “Des Moines Neighbors”.  The forum was very well run and to say interest in this Sheriffs race around Polk County is high would be an understatement—I have attended several high-profile legislative forums and debates which had a fraction of the crowd that Monday’s event had.

The mood of the audience and the two candidates onstage throughout the evening could be best described as “tense”—before exploding in the final minutes during Sheriff McCarthy’s closing statement.  While Dan Charleston kept his tone firm and relatively respectful, Bill McCarthy was repeatedly and openly condescending, dismissive, and at times insulting.  While obviously there is no love lost between the two, McCarthy’s conduct and attitude from the beginning stood out as being unprofessional and wholly unnecessary.  Now that the scene is set and you have an idea of the atmosphere—let’s move onto the substance.

Disagreements Abound

These two candidates see eye-to eye on very little, and the disagreements fit into two clear categories—1) internal department policy, and 2) what essentially amounts to political issues.

The internal department issues at hand concern promotion practices, the size and distribution of the force, and the additional $5 charge that Sheriff McCarthy has added on to the cost of receiving gun permits.  Since these issues are mainly known only to department employees and their friends and family we will not cover them in detail.  A brief summation is that Dan Charleston strongly believes the department is too top-heavy, that the promotion policy is being dealt with unfairly, and that the additional charge on gun permits should be removed.  In terms of the department’s staff allocation, Charleston has made it clear he would remove several supervisory positions and replace them with more patrols and more “boots on the ground”.  Obviously, since he is in charge of the department currently, McCarthy largely supports these things as they are.

The Political Issues

Lacking the time to reasonably go into each in detail, what follows is a surface level look–largely in their own word–at the top three hot-button issues the two candidates sparred over on this evening.

1) Illegal Immigration

Sheriff McCarthy – After being coy by saying he would “like to see some changes” in this area, though failing to mention any, he summarized his position by saying, “Local law enforcement, despite the lies you hear on the radio month after month, are not empowered to arrest people who are undocumented—or what you would call “illegal”.”  He then went on to make the case that if illegal aliens are arrested we would only “fill our jails”.

Dan Charleston—Clearly Charleston would be tougher on enforcement and he referenced the oath he took both in the military and in the Sheriff’s Department to “protect and serve”.  He went on to say, “When the coyotes bring these guys over here in two days for $1,500 it doesn’t mean we turn a blind eye to it and let everything they want to do with the cartels and the gangs we have right here in Des Moines just happen.  It means you have a duty to protect and serve the citizens you were elected by.”

2)  Traffic Cameras

Sheriff McCarthy—Supports both the concept and the expansion of Automated Traffic Enforcement, and made the point that it costs the department nothing up front for the companies to come in and set the systems up.  He called the Constitutional arguments against them misleading and summarized his position by saying, “I want to give these (the cameras) a shot, and I hope they save some lives.”

Dan Charleston—Strongly opposes the concept and practice mainly on 6th Amendment “face your accuser” grounds, and also for the fact he believes it is a ploy to generate more revenue.  He concluded his answer with, “If it was a safety issue why do they let you go 11 mph over the speed limit?…I’m sure people would rather have a patrolman out there than a camera taking pictures of them.”

3)  Stand Your Ground

Sheriff McCarthy—Does not support the legislation largely because it takes discretion away from the officers and gives it to the County Attorney.  He then added, “It’s not good legislation, on the surface it looks good…but let’s not give people a free hand to be violent and mean-spirited to others.”

Dan Charleston– When asked, “Would you support Stand Your Ground legislation?”, Charleston simply answered, “Yes I would.”

(((To go straight to Part 2 of this piece Click Here)))

 

*****To read more from Dan Charleston checkout his “3 Questions with The Conservative Reader:Iowa” from earlier this year*****

 

 

 

Iowa Senate Races: A Closer Look At The Leaners (SD 42)

Iowa Senate Races: A Closer Look At The Leaners (SD 42)

(For a complete overview of all the Iowa Senate races click here)

The Candidates

Larry Kruse (R) vs. Rich Taylor (D)

Larry Kruse has been on the Lee County Board of Supervisors since 2002, and Rich Taylor is a retired HVAC Technician for Fort Madison Iowa State Penitentiary and a former Union Steward and Treasurer

The District

Senate District 42 sits in the very Southeastern corner of Iowa.  It includes all of Lee, most of Henry, and small parts of Jefferson and Washington counties.  The Democrats start with a registration advantage of 2,408, with the breakdown being: (D- 13,344) (R- 10,936) and (NP-13,501).

The Race

Both candidates won primaries to gain their parties nomination, but the path each took was very different.  Democrat Rich Taylor somewhat surprisingly won by 15 points, while Larry Kruse demolished his opponent by more than doubling him up.

I have this seat leaning Democrat–but just barely.  Of all the 8 leaners I see this seat as most likely to go the other way.  Taylor has the advantage in registrations– and he will need every bit of it.  Kruse holds the advantage in experience and cash on hand as of July 19th ($5,402 to $3,193), and could very well pull out the victory.

Noteworthy here is that Rich Taylor is yet another Democratic Union member candidate vying for a seat in the legislature.  The amount of Union candidates representing the Democrat Party on the ballot this year is truly staggering and points to the fact they believe it may be a down year for Democrats, thus needing the Union get out the vote push more than ever, and that a collective bargaining showdown with Governor Branstad is on the horizon.

Also worth a mention, as you can see yourself by clicking the link below, is that Rich Taylor is yet another Democrat candidate whose campaign website makes absolutely no mention of issues, positions, platform, or legislative priorities.  In my book this approach is both unsettling and unacceptable, and begs the question…if you are not going to be open and accountable to your potential constituents when you are seeking their support–how in the world can you be expected to be open and accountable to them once you are in office?

Further Information

Larry Kruse – Kruse4Senate.org

Rich Taylor – RichTaylor4StateSenate.com

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