by | Nov 1, 2012
The Candidates
Dan Zumbach (R) vs. Nate Willems (D)
Democrat Nate Willems has spent the last 3 ½ years in the Iowa House and is an attorney who graduated from the U of I law School and now specializes in worker’s rights cases. Dan Zumbach is a farmer who has also served on the West Delaware School Board and is heavily involved in coaching youth sports and leading 4-H groups.
The District
Northeastern Iowa is home to Senate District 48, which consists of all of Delaware, most of Linn, and small portions of Jones and Buchanan Counties. Republicans hold a slight advantage in registered voters, the numbers shake out like this—(R-12,949) (D-12,355) (NP-18,082) (R+594).
The Race
Like in most political races this one will come down to two things—the candidates and the money they have to spend. In both areas there couldn’t be much more separation between the two camps.
Dealing first with the money, Willems raised an amazing $180,000 on his own. A fairly high number is to be expected from a 3+ year member of the Iowa House, but still this is a lot of money. On top of that the Democrat party tipped their hand that losing this race would be disastrous by throwing in an amazing $237,000. Zumbach did very well for a first time candidate by raising $90,000 on his own, while the GOP chipped in $23,000.
It is worth noting that the numbers for both are slightly inflated because both gave big chunks of the money they raised back to the Parties who then spent it for the candidates, largely on advertising. After these transactions are factored in the Democrats spent $97,000 of their own money on Willems, while Zumbach actually gave the GOP $2,000. The bottom line is that Willems has well beyond a 2:1 money advantage which has allowed him to encompass all media platforms and go very heavy on mailers.
The other thing that jumps out is how very different these two men are. Willems is the young up and coming Democrat/ lawyer while Zumbach is the community anchored, rugged farmer. Much of the result here will come down to which type of voter comes out in larger numbers on Tuesday. Though Willems has clearly proven he has support by being elected multiple times in this general area, both the House districts that make up this Senate District contain more Republicans than Democrats and this Senate District doesn’t resemble his old House District as much as one would expect. On paper it would seem the obvious advantage would go to the “incumbent”, who also happens to hold a huge money advantage.
The reason I’m not willing to say this race necessarily goes to the winner on paper is that Willems, though a current House member, is running in a largely new district and for a different seat. Though some of it is because the Democrat Party see Willems as a future big player, I have a feeling the huge amount of cash they injected in this race has something to do with Zumbach running strong and resonating with the voters in District 48.
I will be closely watching for this race as the returns come in Tuesday—if this seat goes Republican not only was this race a bad investment for Democrats…they are in for a bad night.
Further Information
Dan Zumbach – DanZumbach.com
Nate Willems – NateWillems.com
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by | Oct 22, 2012
Over the past several weeks we have taken an in-depth look at each of the 8 Iowa Senate races TCR: Iowa has deemed as leaning either Republican or Democrat. From now untill election day we are moving on to take a closer look at the 5 Senate races we feel will determine control of the Iowa Senate–and hence control of the Iowa Legislature for the next two years. These races crucial for control are SD 49, SD 48, SD 36, SD 30, and SD 26.
In addition to looking at these 5 races, on November 4th we will look at the districts where Republicans blew major oppurtunities and therefore are not competetive, and on November 5th we will provide a guide for what to watch for on election night.
Here is a compilation of links to the 8 Senate Leaners we have covered:
Senate District 14 – Amy Sinclair (R) vs. Dick Schrad (D)
Senate District 22 – Pat Ward (R) vs. Desmund Adams (D)
Senate District 8 – Mike Gronstal (D) vs. Al Ringenneberg (R)
Seante District 42 – Rich Taylor (D) vs. Larry Kruse (R)
Senate District 38 – Tim Kapucian (R) vs. Shelley Parbs (D)
Senate District 24 – Jerry Behn (R) vs. Shelly Stotts (D)
Senate District 44 - Tom Courtney (D) vs. Bradley Bourn (R)
Senate District 46 - Shawn Hamerlinck (R) vs. Chris Brase (D)
by | Oct 16, 2012
((Click for TCR: Iowa’s complete overview of the races that will decide the Iowa Senate))
The Candidates
Tom Courtney (D) vs. Bradley Bourn (R)
Tom Courtney is the incumbent in the race and currently serves as the Senate Majority Whip and as the Democrat Chair of the Government Oversight Committee. Bradley Bourn retired from the military in 2009 after 24 years, and in that same year unsuccessfully ran for a seat on the Burlington City Council. He has started a small business called Voil Fuel & Services, which produces biofuel from used cooking oil.
The District
Senate District 44 sits in the Southeastern corner of Iowa and is composed of Des Moines and Louisa Counties, and the Western half of Muscatine County. The registered voter situation here is: (D-14,738) (R-10,220) (NP-12,526), which leaves a built in advantage of 4,518 potential Party voters for Senator Courtney.
The Race
Courtney, a former Burlington School Board member, was first elected to the Iowa Senate mid-term in 2000. He won re-election in 2002 before winning the seat again in 2004 and 2008. Throughout his tenure he has tried several times to raise Iowa’s minimum wage, most recently trying to pass a bill that would have increased it from $7.25 to $10.00.
He has been in the news in the last two weeks for efforts to have Secretary of States Matt Schultz audited for using Help America Vote Act funds to purge Iowa’s voter rolls of non-eligible voters. The success of this effort will likely not be known till after the election, and it will be interesting to see if the publicity this has earned him right before November’s vote will be an advantage or if it will be offset by motivating Republicans in this district to turn out. Based on his voter registration edge, I probably would have advised him not to play this card, as the risk seems to outweigh the reward.
Besides his military background, Bourn is running as a staunch fiscal and social conservative. Lowering state spending and taxes are his key issues, telling local media outlets that, “I worked hard all my life. I paid a lot of taxes in my lifetime. I know a lot of people, obviously, have and I’m tired of money just being thrown down the drain.â€Â Speaking on Iowa spending more money that it takes in each year he said, “That’s just unacceptable. I’m tired of having productive people’s money being given to the unproductiveâ€.
Bourn is likely to hit Courtney on spending issues and his Government Oversight Committee’s failure to detect and stop the Iowa Film Office’s massive scandal from a few years ago. Though these lines of attack are effective, I have this seat in the end being won by Senator Courtney. The main reasons are that Courtney has been an outspoken and active member of the Democrat Caucus, the voters know what they have in him, and he has not been unseated in three previous cycles. On top of this he had five times more cash on hand than Broun as of July 19th.
What we have here is a classic Liberal vs. Conservative match-up. Knowing that Bourn is a highly credible challenger will likely cause Democrats in the district to head out to the polls, and I see Courtney scoring a victory largely as a result of his voter registration advantage.
Further Information
Sen. Tom Courtney – Iowa Senate Page * Facebook Page
Bradley Bourn – Bourn4Senate.com
((TCR: Iowa’s Complete Overview of the Struggle for the Senate))
by | Oct 15, 2012
Iowans all across the state were shocked and saddened this morning by the news that Senator Pat Ward had passed away after losing her battle with breast cancer. She had served as a Republican in the Iowa Senate since 2004 and was an extremely respected woman and legislator. The following are statements released by Governor Branstad, Lt. Governor Kim Reynolds, and Republican Party of Iowa Chairman A.J Spiker, and TCR Publisher Art Smith.
All of us at The Conservative Reader pass on our sincere condolences to the Ward family. Â She will be missed.
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Governor Branstad
“I was with shock and sadness that learned of my friend Pat Ward’s passing. She had a wonderful career in public service, and was such a caring and passionate person. As a senator, she was a champion for her district, took the time to get to know the issues, and worked in a bipartisan manner to enact meaningful legislation on behalf of her constituents. She always had a positive outlook on life, even in illness, and her smile would brighten each room she entered. The thoughts and prayers of Chris and I are extended to her large network of family, friends and constituents.â€
Lt. Governor Reynolds
“Having served with Pat in the Senate, I witnessed firsthand her dedication to the state of Iowa, and her incredible work every day on behalf of her constituents. Pat Ward was a dear friend, and the news of her passing is incredibly difficult and painful to hear. I hope all Iowans will look at her example, the way she cared for others and worked to make the world a better place, and remember her significant life and achievements. Our administration will miss her as a policy maker, and we all will personally miss her as a friend.â€
RPI Chairman A.J Spiker
“I am saddened to learn of the passing of Iowa State Senator Pat Ward. Public service and dedication to the people of Iowa were hallmarks of her career. On behalf of all Iowa Republicans, I would like to express our gratitude for Pat’s service to the people of Iowa. Our thoughts and prayers are with Pat’s friends and family during this difficult time.”
TCR Publisher Art Smith
“Pat was a kind and dedicated woman who was always interested in hearing the opinions of others, especially her constituents.  During my brief opportunities in speaking with Pat, I found her to be charming and very well informed on the issues.  As my senator, I was surprised that she not only remembered me whenever we crossed paths, but on our first acquaintance quickly connected me to a single letter I had written her in the past.  I sincerely admired her person-ability.”
by | Oct 10, 2012
(For a complete overview by TCR:Iowa of the Iowa Senate races click here)
The Candidates
Jerry Behn (R) vs. Shelly Stotts (D)
Jerry Behn is the incumbent and was elected to the Senate in 1995 after serving one year as Boone County Supervisor. He was then elected Senate Minority leader on November 10th, 2011. Shelly Stotts has been a teacher in Boone for the last 28 years, has her Masters Degree in Education, and is a past president of the Boone Educators Association.
The District
Senate District 24 sits due North of Dallas County. It’s new configuration after redistricting shaves off Dallas County and replaces it with the Southeastern portion of Webster County and the Northwestern corner of Story County. These slivers join all of Hamilton, Greene, and Boone Counties to construct SD 24. The registered voter numbers here are less favorable to Jerry Behn than his old district was, though he still holds an advantage of R+1,379. The rest of the numbers are: (R-13,465) (D-12,086) (NP-14,553), with the district total being 40,132.
The Race
Much like Senate District 38, this goes in the leaner column by just a hair and should be a victory for Behn. In addition to campaigning hard, Jerry Behn has been one of the point men rolling out the Republican legislative agenda titled “Iowa Strong“—which is a fairly specific, multi-issue priorities list for the upcoming session.
Despite being a well-liked legislator, a fantastic spokesman for the Republican Party, and a likely victor in his November re-election bid—Behn has come under fire this year from fellow Republicans for not raising the kind of funds necessary for a Republican takeover of the Senate. There is really no way to say the criticism is unjustified, as part of his job as minority leader is building a war chest that can be distributed to other Republican candidates throughout the state. As of the last filing period he was outraised by his counterpart, Democratic Majority Leader Mike Gronstal, by more than $416,000.
Democrat Shelly Stotts is attempting to transition from a long career in teaching to Senator by taking down the highest ranking Republican in the Senate. Though the registration advantage is surely able to be overcome, Mrs. Stotts will have a hard time doing so for two major reasons. First, though Behn’s cash on hand is low for a Minority Leader, he still has $83,383 in the bank to Stotts’ $1,528. Secondly, she has identified her political views on her own Facebook page as “liberalâ€. Though laudable for her honesty—this self-description combined with her money disadvantage is not a recipe for an upset.
Frankly, I am surprised that more Democrats have not stepped up to the plate with donations. You would expect this to be the case being that the newly drawn district left a Republican Senate Minority Leader with such a small voter registration advantage. Put simply it would be a shock not to see Jerry Behn back in the Senate in 2013—and the possibility of him being at the helm of a newly minted Republican majority is certainly within reach.
Further Information
Jerry Behn – Candidate Profile
Shelly Stotts – Facebook Page
(Complete TCR: Iowa overview of the races crucial to Republicans winning a majority in the Iowa Senate)
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