by | Oct 22, 2012
Over the past several weeks we have taken an in-depth look at each of the 8 Iowa Senate races TCR: Iowa has deemed as leaning either Republican or Democrat. From now untill election day we are moving on to take a closer look at the 5 Senate races we feel will determine control of the Iowa Senate–and hence control of the Iowa Legislature for the next two years. These races crucial for control are SD 49, SD 48, SD 36, SD 30, and SD 26.
In addition to looking at these 5 races, on November 4th we will look at the districts where Republicans blew major oppurtunities and therefore are not competetive, and on November 5th we will provide a guide for what to watch for on election night.
Here is a compilation of links to the 8 Senate Leaners we have covered:
Senate District 14 – Amy Sinclair (R) vs. Dick Schrad (D)
Senate District 22 – Pat Ward (R) vs. Desmund Adams (D)
Senate District 8 – Mike Gronstal (D) vs. Al Ringenneberg (R)
Seante District 42 – Rich Taylor (D) vs. Larry Kruse (R)
Senate District 38 – Tim Kapucian (R) vs. Shelley Parbs (D)
Senate District 24 – Jerry Behn (R) vs. Shelly Stotts (D)
Senate District 44 - Tom Courtney (D) vs. Bradley Bourn (R)
Senate District 46 - Shawn Hamerlinck (R) vs. Chris Brase (D)
by | Oct 18, 2012
(( Click for TCR: Iowa’s complete overview of the Iowa Senate races ))
The Candidates
Shawn Hamerlinck (R) vs. Chris Brase (D)
Shawn Hamerlinck is the incumbent here. He is a faculty member of the Eastern Iowa Community College District and is seeking his second term after first being elected to the Iowa Senate in 2008. Chris Brase is a longtime Muscatine firefighter running for office for the first time.
The District
Senate District 46 is on the Eastern border of Iowa, essentially curling around the north and east sides of the city of Davenport. By registered voter numbers this is the true definition of a swing district—(R-11,644) (D-11,197) (NP-15,741) (R+447). Having said that, the fact that both the House seats in this district (91 and 92) are held by Republicans, and the incumbent Senator is also a Republican, suggests the GOP has a stronger history of getting out the vote in this area. The two counties in play are Muscatine and the Southwestern territory of Scott County.
The Race
Surprising most Iowa political watchers, Hamerlinck faced a primary challenge from fellow incumbent and friend Jim Hahn. Though he won handily on primary day he was forced to spend a good deal of money along the way—and as such was way down in cash on hand to Brase as of the last filing period. With Brase having nearly $30,000 in the bank, it remains to be seen if Republicans will double-donate to Hamerlinck—if they don’t I fully expect the Party to step in with resources. The GOP certainly doesn’t want to spend in defense of a popular incumbent, however, the thought of losing an up and coming future star in the Party will be a much less appealing reality.
Despite being only his first term, Hamerlinck has been very active in writing, sponsoring, and co-sponsoring legislation. The areas in which he focused his legislative contributions were in cutting regulations (SF 2116 & SR 7), protecting the 2nd Amendment (SF’s 162, 263, 264, and 372), and creating an online database for citizens to track government spending (SF 139).
Chris Brase is running hard on being able to be bi-partisan, saying he will, “work with anyone who has a good idea—Republican or Democrat—and stand up to partisan politics on behalf of Iowa’s families.â€Â He says he is in favor of cutting taxes on middle class families and helping local businesses—partially by pushing for more low-interest loans for such enterprises.
As mentioned above his $30,000 on hand for this race proves he is able to raise the funds necessary to unseat an incumbent Senator. Beyond providing invaluable advertising, fundraising numbers in non-statewide elections are an important barometer for lesser known candidates because it points to their overall persuasive abilities. This not only translates to cash in the bank but suggests the candidate will do very well on the doorstep of undecided voters.
Though I have this seat leaning Republican there are several factors that make this a possible pick-up for Democrats. On top of the fact Brase has no large registered voter advantage to overcome, has plenty of money, and that local Democrats are likely hungry to finally have representation in this area—Senate 46 falls inside Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District. This is the match-up between Dave Loebsack (D) and John Archer (R), and as of now Archer is not running as strong as the other Republican Congressional hopefuls.
If on election night Loebsack is able to defeat Archer, and do it by close to double-digits, Hamerlinck is in jeopardy of being taken out as well. Though being defeated is certainly possible, I still see Shawn Hamerlinck returning to the Iowa Senate in 2013.
Further Information
Shawn Hamerlinck – ShawnHamerlinck.com
Chris Brase -Â ChrisBraseForIowaSenate.com
by | Oct 16, 2012
((Click for TCR: Iowa’s complete overview of the races that will decide the Iowa Senate))
The Candidates
Tom Courtney (D) vs. Bradley Bourn (R)
Tom Courtney is the incumbent in the race and currently serves as the Senate Majority Whip and as the Democrat Chair of the Government Oversight Committee. Bradley Bourn retired from the military in 2009 after 24 years, and in that same year unsuccessfully ran for a seat on the Burlington City Council. He has started a small business called Voil Fuel & Services, which produces biofuel from used cooking oil.
The District
Senate District 44 sits in the Southeastern corner of Iowa and is composed of Des Moines and Louisa Counties, and the Western half of Muscatine County. The registered voter situation here is: (D-14,738) (R-10,220) (NP-12,526), which leaves a built in advantage of 4,518 potential Party voters for Senator Courtney.
The Race
Courtney, a former Burlington School Board member, was first elected to the Iowa Senate mid-term in 2000. He won re-election in 2002 before winning the seat again in 2004 and 2008. Throughout his tenure he has tried several times to raise Iowa’s minimum wage, most recently trying to pass a bill that would have increased it from $7.25 to $10.00.
He has been in the news in the last two weeks for efforts to have Secretary of States Matt Schultz audited for using Help America Vote Act funds to purge Iowa’s voter rolls of non-eligible voters. The success of this effort will likely not be known till after the election, and it will be interesting to see if the publicity this has earned him right before November’s vote will be an advantage or if it will be offset by motivating Republicans in this district to turn out. Based on his voter registration edge, I probably would have advised him not to play this card, as the risk seems to outweigh the reward.
Besides his military background, Bourn is running as a staunch fiscal and social conservative. Lowering state spending and taxes are his key issues, telling local media outlets that, “I worked hard all my life. I paid a lot of taxes in my lifetime. I know a lot of people, obviously, have and I’m tired of money just being thrown down the drain.â€Â Speaking on Iowa spending more money that it takes in each year he said, “That’s just unacceptable. I’m tired of having productive people’s money being given to the unproductiveâ€.
Bourn is likely to hit Courtney on spending issues and his Government Oversight Committee’s failure to detect and stop the Iowa Film Office’s massive scandal from a few years ago. Though these lines of attack are effective, I have this seat in the end being won by Senator Courtney. The main reasons are that Courtney has been an outspoken and active member of the Democrat Caucus, the voters know what they have in him, and he has not been unseated in three previous cycles. On top of this he had five times more cash on hand than Broun as of July 19th.
What we have here is a classic Liberal vs. Conservative match-up. Knowing that Bourn is a highly credible challenger will likely cause Democrats in the district to head out to the polls, and I see Courtney scoring a victory largely as a result of his voter registration advantage.
Further Information
Sen. Tom Courtney – Iowa Senate Page * Facebook Page
Bradley Bourn – Bourn4Senate.com
((TCR: Iowa’s Complete Overview of the Struggle for the Senate))
by | Oct 10, 2012
(For a complete overview by TCR:Iowa of the Iowa Senate races click here)
The Candidates
Jerry Behn (R) vs. Shelly Stotts (D)
Jerry Behn is the incumbent and was elected to the Senate in 1995 after serving one year as Boone County Supervisor. He was then elected Senate Minority leader on November 10th, 2011. Shelly Stotts has been a teacher in Boone for the last 28 years, has her Masters Degree in Education, and is a past president of the Boone Educators Association.
The District
Senate District 24 sits due North of Dallas County. It’s new configuration after redistricting shaves off Dallas County and replaces it with the Southeastern portion of Webster County and the Northwestern corner of Story County. These slivers join all of Hamilton, Greene, and Boone Counties to construct SD 24. The registered voter numbers here are less favorable to Jerry Behn than his old district was, though he still holds an advantage of R+1,379. The rest of the numbers are: (R-13,465) (D-12,086) (NP-14,553), with the district total being 40,132.
The Race
Much like Senate District 38, this goes in the leaner column by just a hair and should be a victory for Behn. In addition to campaigning hard, Jerry Behn has been one of the point men rolling out the Republican legislative agenda titled “Iowa Strong“—which is a fairly specific, multi-issue priorities list for the upcoming session.
Despite being a well-liked legislator, a fantastic spokesman for the Republican Party, and a likely victor in his November re-election bid—Behn has come under fire this year from fellow Republicans for not raising the kind of funds necessary for a Republican takeover of the Senate. There is really no way to say the criticism is unjustified, as part of his job as minority leader is building a war chest that can be distributed to other Republican candidates throughout the state. As of the last filing period he was outraised by his counterpart, Democratic Majority Leader Mike Gronstal, by more than $416,000.
Democrat Shelly Stotts is attempting to transition from a long career in teaching to Senator by taking down the highest ranking Republican in the Senate. Though the registration advantage is surely able to be overcome, Mrs. Stotts will have a hard time doing so for two major reasons. First, though Behn’s cash on hand is low for a Minority Leader, he still has $83,383 in the bank to Stotts’ $1,528. Secondly, she has identified her political views on her own Facebook page as “liberalâ€. Though laudable for her honesty—this self-description combined with her money disadvantage is not a recipe for an upset.
Frankly, I am surprised that more Democrats have not stepped up to the plate with donations. You would expect this to be the case being that the newly drawn district left a Republican Senate Minority Leader with such a small voter registration advantage. Put simply it would be a shock not to see Jerry Behn back in the Senate in 2013—and the possibility of him being at the helm of a newly minted Republican majority is certainly within reach.
Further Information
Jerry Behn – Candidate Profile
Shelly Stotts – Facebook Page
(Complete TCR: Iowa overview of the races crucial to Republicans winning a majority in the Iowa Senate)
by | Oct 9, 2012
(For a complete overview by TCR: Iowa of the Iowa Senate races click here)
The Candidates
Tim Kapucian (R) vs. Shelley Parbs (D)
Tim Kapucian is the incumbent, having first been elected to the Senate in 2009. Shelley Parbs is a first time candidate and a production worker at Rockwell-Collins.
The District
Iowa Senate District 38 is located Northeast of Des Moines, halfway between Polk County and the Illinois border. It is made up entirely of three whole counties (Poweshiek, Iowa, and Benton). The number breakdown of registered voters in SD 38 is as follows: (R-12,549) (D-10,963) (NP-16,512), which leaves a Republican advantage of +1,586.
The Race
Since being elected in 2009 Tim Kapucian has taken on a high profile role in the Senate minority. This includes, but is not limited to, being elected Assistant Republican Leader and being the ranking member of the Senate Transportation Committee and the Transportation, Infrastructure and Capitals Appropriations Subcommittee. The Bleeding Heartland makes the very good observation that Democrats will attack hard on the fact that he is on the record twice voting for an increase in the per-gallon tax on gasoline. Kapucian has gotten major backing from Farm Bureau and, beyond being a farmer himself, this is likely not a coincidence as they spent the last year leaning on Republicans to support this unpopular price hike.
Shelley Parbs easily won a three way Democratic Primary to earn the right to take on Kapucian. She is a production worker with Rockwell-Collins and a member of the union, IBEW. Mrs. Parbs appears to be another Democratic labor union candidate (she’s been endorsed by every union in a 50 mile radius), and yet another Democratic candidate with absolutely no information on her campaign website regarding her political views or agenda. All the visitor gets is that Parbs wants to “invest in worker training†and “make sure jobless Iowans get the help they need to get back on thier feetâ€. This is the case with so many of these Democrat candidates that it is beyond a trend and is surely an intentional strategy from the political higher-ups in the Party. How they are expecting to bring anyone into the campaign with no information on issues, not even platitudes—fully escapes me.
This seat is a strong Republican leaner because the challenger is not that threatening and the Republican Party will not let Kapucian go without plenty of resources and attention. He made not need much help, as the fact that he already had a $41 thousand to $15 thousand dollar cash on hand advantage as of July 19th shows he doesn’t exactly struggle in the fund raising department.
It strikes me that this race could be very interesting if there was a Democrat surge for the candidate on the presidential ballot, as there was in 2008 for Obama. The fact is this will not be the case in 2012 and Senator Kapucian should be returning to the Senate, perhaps in the majority, in 2013.
Further Information
Tim Kapucian — Senate Republican Caucus page
Shelley Parbs — Shelley4Senate
(Complete TCR: Iowa overview of the races crucial to Republicans winning a majority in the Iowa Senate)
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Over the past several weeks we have taken an in-depth look at each of the 8 Iowa Senate races TCR: Iowa has deemed as leaning either Republican or Democrat. From now untill election day we are moving on to take a closer look at the 5 Senate races we feel will determine control of the Iowa Senate–and hence control of the Iowa Legislature for the next two years. These races crucial for control are SD 49, SD 48, SD 36, SD 30, and SD 26.