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Iowa

The Day After Reveals Terrible Night For Republicans In and Out of Iowa

The Day After Reveals Terrible Night For Republicans In and Out of Iowa

There are plenty of numbers to sift through in the coming days, and trust me I have a lot to say about the things that caused last night to be so unnecessarily disappointing.  For now here are just a few quick reads–the total postmortem is certainly pending.

1)  Final Results in Iowa are: Congressional Victors= King, Latham, Braley, and Loebsack.  Iowa Republicans hold the House but lose seven seats (53-47), and Democrats hold the Senate 26-23 with a special convention in SD 22 upcoming.

2)  The lack of money, and the allocation of the relatively little money Senate Republicans did have, surely ended up costing control of the Senate.  On the flip-side the Democrat strategy that we talked about leading up to last night proved to be brilliant.  There is no doubt that they out-raised Republicans financially and then outplayed them tactically.  There is some fascinating stuff going on in this area that we will be laying out in the coming days.

3)  Close races in the Senate and the House were plentiful.  In these cases Democrats being able to harness their union machine to turn out the vote often can eat up and then surpass small Republican voter registration advantages–on the surface it looks like that is exactly what happened in many races.

4)  Having studied the crucial Senate races very closely the last few months, there is no excuse at the State Party level for that poor of a showing by Republicans.  Having such a robust Iowa Caucus earlier this year with a huge slate of candidates, combined with other external forces, should have guaranteed at the minimum a good night for Republicans that had a chance to be great.  The fact that this did not happen will cause even more upheavals between Iowa Republicans and RPI.

5)  The number one excuse you will hear from vested Republicans statewide is that “it was a bad night nationally for nearly all Republicans and that explains our poor showing here”.  That is not going to cut it for me–and I doubt it will for many.

6)  Proof of the terrible night Republicans had nationwide was that Rep. Allen West of Florida was defeated last night.  This is a large blow to the Tea Party as Mr. West, though he has a penchant for pushing the envelope too much with his mouth, was a fantastic voice on fiscal and military issues.

 

Much more will be  coming in the following days…a tough night for the cause to be sure, but with the election now over we must stay tuned into the issues that will be shaped by them.  Let us not forget that first and foremost politics is about issues–not elections.

Final Results In–Republicans Fail

Larry Kruse was just declared to have been beaten by around 1,400 (via his campaign chair Matt Green who came from the auditors office).  Therefore Democrats will control the Senate and have a 26-23 majority going into the Special Election in SD 22.

Tough night all around….signing off.

Update–One more seat decided

Just crossing the wire, SD 30 race called for Democrat Jeff Danielson over Republican Matt Reisetter.

This is a big blow to Republicans as Reisetter was a rising star in the GOP and the Republicans are now painted into a corner.  Simply put–they need to Larry Kruse to hold onto the lead he has in SD 42 and for Dennis Guth to hold his lead in SD 4.

At this point Republicans need these two things to happen just to reach a tie if they are able to win the Special Election in SD 22.

Iowa Senate Races Turn Into Mini-Florida 2000

Closing in on 2 a.m and the Secretary of State Site still not posting 100% of precinct results…and things couldn’t be tighter.

Here Is Where We Stand

You can tell by looking at the Live Senate Tracker Post below that all the verdicts are in except for 3 seats.  Republican hopes of gaining control are resting on Larry Kruse in Senate 42 and Matt Reisetter in SD 30.  If both of these seats go Democrat Republicans will not take control of the Senate.  For control Republicans need to bank for certain SD 4 (which I think they will), which will bring them to 23 seats and get either SD 42 or SD 30 and add it to Pat Ward’s former seat in SD 22 in the following weeks.

Will update as soon as possible, but it is looking like the final tally may not come until the morning.

TCR’s Live Iowa Senate Tracker

TCR’s Live Iowa Senate Tracker

**Secretary Of State website is having technical issues and therefore the results we are waiting on coming in slowly. Senate Control still in the balance….most recent info in blue below**

Sec. of State site still not posting full results (only at 97.57%)…As of 1:30 am here is where we stand.  The count is Democrats with 24 seats and Republicans with 22 seats.  Still yet to come in is SD 42, SD 4 (likely Republican), and SD 30.  These numbers will add up to 49 when they come in pending the SD 22 Pat Ward special election.

As the results come in we will update the chart below untill control of the chamber is determined.

Iowa Senate Tracker

Keeping in mind Republicans hold a 13 to 11 advantage in holdover seats as the evening began, and that there are 4 Republican seats going unnopposed, we are tracking 22 races in total.  They are in three categories, 1) heavily favored by one party or the other, 2) seats leaning tp one Party or the other, and 3) the 5 crucial toss-ups.

TCR’s Heavily Favored Projections

Republicans                                                                                      Democrats

SD 40 - Projection holds, Repub. wins                                         SD 50 -  Projection holds, Dem. wins.

SD 28  -  Projection holds, Repub. wins                                       SD 34 -  Projection holds, Dem. wins

SD 6    - Projection holds, Repub. wins                                         SD 32 -  Projection holds, Dem. wins

SD 4    - Projection holds, Repub. wins.                                        SD 18 -  Projection holds, Dem. wins

——————————————–                                            SD 16 -Projection holds, Dem. wins.

TCR Leaners Projections

Republicans                                                                                  Democrats

SD 46 -  Projection wrong, Dem. Brase Wins                        SD 44 -  Projection holds, Courtney wins.

SD 38 -  Projection holds, Repub. wins .                                SD 42 -  Projection wrong, Rep. Kruse wins.

SD 24  -  Projection holds, Repub. wins.                                SD 8 -  Projection holds, Gronstal wins.

SD 22 -  (Pending Special Election)

SD 14 – Projection holds, Repub. wins.

TCR’s 5 Critical Toss-ups

SD 49 -  Democrat Hart wins.

SD 48 -  Republican Dan Zumbach wins.

SD 36 -  Democrat Sodders wins.

SD 30 -  Democrat Danielson wins.

SD 26 -  Democrat Mary Jo Wilhelm wins (120 vote margin-recount likely).

If TCR Iowa’s Projections of likely and leaner seat above are correct, Republicans will need just 2 of the 5 toss-ups.

 

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